Bond Market Rallies As Recession Worries Mount, Rate Cut Bets Gain Steam Ahead Of Jobs Data
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 04 2024
0mins
Should l Buy TLT?
Source: Benzinga
- Long-dated U.S. Treasuries Rally: Long-dated U.S. Treasuries are rallying, breaking above a key downtrend fueled by soft economic data, leading to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.
- TLT ETF Performance: The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT has surged to $92, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains and surpassing its declining trend channel and 50-day moving average.
- Other Bond ETFs Surge: ETFs tracking long-term zero-coupon Treasuries like ZROZ have seen significant increases, with some surging up to 6% over the last four days.
- Weak Economic Data: Recent economic data releases have been below expectations, hinting at a possible Fed rate cut in September, including lower GDP growth, poor business activity index readings, and decreasing job openings.
- Market Expectations and Upcoming Data: Traders are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut in September, with a 65% chance according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Crucial updates on the U.S. labor market are expected, including the ADP private Employment Report and the official employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on TLT
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
TRUMP: POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN OVER THE PAST DAY
- Trump's Recent Talks: Donald Trump has engaged in discussions regarding Iran over the past 24 hours.
- Focus on Iran: The conversations have been characterized as very positive, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations.
See More
U.S. SEC Proposes Changes to Allow Public Companies to Choose Semiannual Reporting
- Proposed Amendments: The U.S. SEC has proposed amendments to eliminate the requirement for public companies to provide optional semiannual reporting.
- Impact on Reporting: This change aims to streamline reporting processes for public companies, potentially reducing their regulatory burden.
See More
U.S. Major Indexes Recover from Losses Following Reports of Donald Trump's Call for Israel to Reduce Strikes on Lebanon.
Market Recovery: U.S. major indexes have reversed previous losses and are trending higher.
Trump's Influence: Donald Trump has urged Israel to reduce its military strikes on Lebanon.
See More
U.S. Stocks Turn Negative as Nasdaq Falls 0.57% and S&P 500 Declines 0.17% Amid Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Concerns.
Market Performance: U.S. stocks experienced a reversal in intraday trading, with the Nasdaq down 0.57% and the S&P 500 off 0.17%.
Influencing Factors: The decline in stock prices was influenced by rising oil prices and increasing geopolitical tensions, which weighed on market sentiment.
See More
Ned Davis Research Lowers Equity Ratings and Moves to Cash: Here's the Reason.
- Market Downgrade: Ned Davis Research has downgraded equities in response to current market conditions.
- Shift to Cash: The firm is moving towards cash investments due to high volatility influenced by the Iran war, persistent inflation, and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations.
See More
Bond Market Indicators Suggest Rising Interest Rates Ahead
- Market Signals: The bond market is indicating potential shifts that investors should pay attention to.
- Investor Caution: There are signs that suggest investors may need to reconsider their strategies based on current bond market trends.
- Economic Implications: Changes in the bond market could have broader implications for the economy and investment decisions.
- Future Outlook: Analysts are urging investors to closely monitor these signals for future market movements.
See More
TRUMP: POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN OVER THE PAST DAY
- Trump's Recent Talks: Donald Trump has engaged in discussions regarding Iran over the past 24 hours.
- Focus on Iran: The conversations have been characterized as very positive, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations.
See More
U.S. SEC Proposes Changes to Allow Public Companies to Choose Semiannual Reporting
- Proposed Amendments: The U.S. SEC has proposed amendments to eliminate the requirement for public companies to provide optional semiannual reporting.
- Impact on Reporting: This change aims to streamline reporting processes for public companies, potentially reducing their regulatory burden.
See More
U.S. Major Indexes Recover from Losses Following Reports of Donald Trump's Call for Israel to Reduce Strikes on Lebanon.
Market Recovery: U.S. major indexes have reversed previous losses and are trending higher.
Trump's Influence: Donald Trump has urged Israel to reduce its military strikes on Lebanon.
See More
U.S. Stocks Turn Negative as Nasdaq Falls 0.57% and S&P 500 Declines 0.17% Amid Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Concerns.
Market Performance: U.S. stocks experienced a reversal in intraday trading, with the Nasdaq down 0.57% and the S&P 500 off 0.17%.
Influencing Factors: The decline in stock prices was influenced by rising oil prices and increasing geopolitical tensions, which weighed on market sentiment.
See More
Ned Davis Research Lowers Equity Ratings and Moves to Cash: Here's the Reason.
- Market Downgrade: Ned Davis Research has downgraded equities in response to current market conditions.
- Shift to Cash: The firm is moving towards cash investments due to high volatility influenced by the Iran war, persistent inflation, and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations.
See More
Bond Market Indicators Suggest Rising Interest Rates Ahead
- Market Signals: The bond market is indicating potential shifts that investors should pay attention to.
- Investor Caution: There are signs that suggest investors may need to reconsider their strategies based on current bond market trends.
- Economic Implications: Changes in the bond market could have broader implications for the economy and investment decisions.
- Future Outlook: Analysts are urging investors to closely monitor these signals for future market movements.
See More
