Analysis of Rigetti Quantum Computing Stock Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 08 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RGTI?
Source: Fool
- Market Performance Review: Rigetti Computing's stock has risen by 17.96% over the past year, yet it is currently trading over 60% below its 2025 peak, indicating investor concerns about its future prospects and the need for careful risk assessment.
- Technical Competition Analysis: Rigetti's 108-qubit system boasts impressive gate speeds of 50-70 nanoseconds; however, its median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99% lags behind competitors like IonQ, which achieves 99.99%, highlighting the urgent need for technological improvements.
- Future Development Goals: Rigetti aims to develop a 1,000-qubit system by 2027 with a target fidelity of 99.7%, but this still falls short compared to IonQ's ambitions, and the commercial viability threshold remains at 1 million qubits and 99.99% fidelity.
- Investor Recommendations: While the quantum computing market is projected to reach $72 billion by 2030, Rigetti could become a significant player if it captures market share; however, due to its speculative nature, investors are advised to adopt a small stake strategy to mitigate risks.
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Analyst Views on RGTI
Wall Street analysts forecast RGTI stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.990
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
Current: 14.990
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
About RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a full-stack quantum computing company. The Company operates quantum computers over the cloud and serves global enterprise, government, and research clients through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform. The Company’s quantum-classical infrastructure provides high-performance integration with public and private clouds for practical quantum computing. It has developed a multi-chip quantum processor for scalable quantum computing systems. Through the Company’s Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) platform, its machines can be integrated into any public, private or hybrid cloud. It is also engaged in the sale of quantum processing units (QPUs) and custom computing components, and development contracts and other services. Its QPUs contain fabricated silicon-based chips featuring superconducting qubits. The Company designs and manufactures its chips in-house at Fab-1, an integrated quantum device manufacturing facility.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rigetti's Q3 Revenue Falls Below $2 Million Amid Market Cap Concerns
- Disappointing Revenue: Rigetti reported only $1.9 million in Q3 revenue, significantly below market expectations, indicating slow commercialization progress in the quantum computing sector, which may undermine investor confidence.
- Market Cap Decline: Despite Rigetti's market cap still being nearly $5 billion, it has drastically decreased from over $18 billion last fall, reflecting growing concerns about its future growth potential among investors.
- Analyst Downgrade: TD Cowen analyst Krish Sinkar downgraded Rigetti's stock, suggesting that investors have overly optimistic expectations for future earnings, particularly regarding the aggressive revenue forecasts for 2027.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: The enthusiasm for quantum computing stocks has waned, with Rigetti's shares down approximately 75% from last year's highs, indicating that the market's previous overexcitement about quantum technology is cooling, prompting investors to be cautious in selecting future winners.
See More
Small-Cap Semiconductor Stocks Face Sell Ratings
- Valuation Risks: Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) leads the small- and mid-cap semiconductor sector with a staggering price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 567.63x, coupled with a Strong Sell rating, indicating significant downside risk for investors concerned about future performance.
- Negative Quant Signals: Universal Display Corporation (OLED) and Impinj, Inc. (PI) exhibit P/S multiples of 9.42x and 8.95x respectively, alongside Sell and Strong Sell ratings, suggesting these companies may struggle to maintain competitive positions, potentially impacting stock price stability.
- Market Watchlist: Datavault AI Inc. (DVLT) and CEVA, Inc. (CEVA) are also highlighted, with P/S ratios of 6.93x and 4.99x, respectively, indicating unfavorable quantitative scores that suggest investors should reassess their portfolios in light of these valuations.
- Industry Trends: The list also includes indie Semiconductor, Inc. (INDI) and Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL), with P/S ratios of 3.28x and 0.90x, reflecting a broader downturn in the small-cap semiconductor sector amid current market conditions.
See More
Quantum Computing Stocks Plummet Amid Downgrades
- Stock Price Plunge: Rigetti Computing's stock has fallen approximately 75% from last year's autumn highs, with a further 15.4% drop this week, indicating a retreat from the market's previous over-optimism regarding quantum computing.
- Analyst Downgrade: TD Cowen analyst Krish Sinkar downgraded Rigetti's stock, suggesting that investors have overly optimistic expectations for the company's future, particularly regarding revenue estimates for 2027.
- Revenue vs. Valuation: Rigetti reported only $1.9 million in third-quarter revenue, while the market values the company at nearly $5 billion, a significant drop from over $18 billion last fall, yet still appears inflated.
- Future Demand Outlook: Rigetti's management believes that the demand and value for quantum computing will materialize post-2030, and the current stock decline reflects investor caution regarding potential returns in the coming years.
See More
Quantum Computing Stocks Experience Significant Decline Amid Risk-Off Sentiment
- Market Sentiment Shift: Quantum computing stocks experienced broad mid-to-high single-digit losses on Thursday, reflecting a heightened risk-off sentiment in speculative tech, which has led to decreased investor confidence and increased market volatility.
- Poor Year-to-Date Performance: Year-to-date, most stocks in the quantum computing sector have declined by double digits, indicating ongoing pressure on the industry, particularly against a backdrop of elevated bearish positioning that has made investors cautious about future prospects.
- Short Interest Pressure: As of January 30, short interest rates reveal significant bearish sentiment, with Quantum Computing (QUBT) at 21.89% and IonQ (IONQ) at 20.80%, suggesting a lack of confidence in these companies and potential for further price declines.
- ETF Performance Analysis: The quantum computing ETF (Defiance Quantum ETF, QTUM) has also been affected, and the deteriorating market environment may impact investor decisions regarding long-term investments in the quantum computing sector, increasing uncertainty within the industry.
See More
Quantum Computing Stocks Face Major Risks Amidst Opportunities
- Market Potential: Quantum computing is projected to create between $450 billion and $850 billion in global economic value by 2040, offering substantial return potential for investors despite being significantly smaller than the trillion-dollar AI market.
- Stock Price Surge: As of October 2025, shares of IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. have skyrocketed by 670%, 6,217%, 3,912%, and 2,798% respectively over the past 12 months, reflecting strong market confidence in quantum computing.
- Significant Financing Risks: These four quantum computing companies collectively issued over $4.1 billion in common stock and warrants in 2025 to raise capital, indicating their unproven operating models and posing dilution risks for existing shareholders.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: With major players like Amazon and Microsoft ramping up investments in quantum computing, the low barriers to entry could threaten the market position of pure-play quantum companies, potentially leading to their obsolescence as the technology matures.
See More
Quantum Computing Stocks Surge Up to 6,200% Over the Past Year
- Quantum Stock Performance: As of mid-October, stocks of IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. surged by up to 6,200% over the past year, reflecting strong investor confidence and robust market demand for this nascent technology.
- Market Potential Analysis: According to a forecast by Boston Consulting Group, quantum computing could generate between $450 billion and $850 billion in global economic value by 2040, attracting significant investor interest despite its smaller market size compared to artificial intelligence.
- Risks and Challenges: While quantum computing stocks present substantial return potential, they face risks such as share dilution and slow commercialization; collectively, these four companies issued over $4.1 billion in common stock and warrants in 2025 to raise capital, which could negatively impact existing shareholders.
- Competitive Pressure: With the
See More
Rigetti's Q3 Revenue Falls Below $2 Million Amid Market Cap Concerns
- Disappointing Revenue: Rigetti reported only $1.9 million in Q3 revenue, significantly below market expectations, indicating slow commercialization progress in the quantum computing sector, which may undermine investor confidence.
- Market Cap Decline: Despite Rigetti's market cap still being nearly $5 billion, it has drastically decreased from over $18 billion last fall, reflecting growing concerns about its future growth potential among investors.
- Analyst Downgrade: TD Cowen analyst Krish Sinkar downgraded Rigetti's stock, suggesting that investors have overly optimistic expectations for future earnings, particularly regarding the aggressive revenue forecasts for 2027.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: The enthusiasm for quantum computing stocks has waned, with Rigetti's shares down approximately 75% from last year's highs, indicating that the market's previous overexcitement about quantum technology is cooling, prompting investors to be cautious in selecting future winners.
See More
Small-Cap Semiconductor Stocks Face Sell Ratings
- Valuation Risks: Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) leads the small- and mid-cap semiconductor sector with a staggering price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 567.63x, coupled with a Strong Sell rating, indicating significant downside risk for investors concerned about future performance.
- Negative Quant Signals: Universal Display Corporation (OLED) and Impinj, Inc. (PI) exhibit P/S multiples of 9.42x and 8.95x respectively, alongside Sell and Strong Sell ratings, suggesting these companies may struggle to maintain competitive positions, potentially impacting stock price stability.
- Market Watchlist: Datavault AI Inc. (DVLT) and CEVA, Inc. (CEVA) are also highlighted, with P/S ratios of 6.93x and 4.99x, respectively, indicating unfavorable quantitative scores that suggest investors should reassess their portfolios in light of these valuations.
- Industry Trends: The list also includes indie Semiconductor, Inc. (INDI) and Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL), with P/S ratios of 3.28x and 0.90x, reflecting a broader downturn in the small-cap semiconductor sector amid current market conditions.
See More
Quantum Computing Stocks Plummet Amid Downgrades
- Stock Price Plunge: Rigetti Computing's stock has fallen approximately 75% from last year's autumn highs, with a further 15.4% drop this week, indicating a retreat from the market's previous over-optimism regarding quantum computing.
- Analyst Downgrade: TD Cowen analyst Krish Sinkar downgraded Rigetti's stock, suggesting that investors have overly optimistic expectations for the company's future, particularly regarding revenue estimates for 2027.
- Revenue vs. Valuation: Rigetti reported only $1.9 million in third-quarter revenue, while the market values the company at nearly $5 billion, a significant drop from over $18 billion last fall, yet still appears inflated.
- Future Demand Outlook: Rigetti's management believes that the demand and value for quantum computing will materialize post-2030, and the current stock decline reflects investor caution regarding potential returns in the coming years.
See More
Quantum Computing Stocks Experience Significant Decline Amid Risk-Off Sentiment
- Market Sentiment Shift: Quantum computing stocks experienced broad mid-to-high single-digit losses on Thursday, reflecting a heightened risk-off sentiment in speculative tech, which has led to decreased investor confidence and increased market volatility.
- Poor Year-to-Date Performance: Year-to-date, most stocks in the quantum computing sector have declined by double digits, indicating ongoing pressure on the industry, particularly against a backdrop of elevated bearish positioning that has made investors cautious about future prospects.
- Short Interest Pressure: As of January 30, short interest rates reveal significant bearish sentiment, with Quantum Computing (QUBT) at 21.89% and IonQ (IONQ) at 20.80%, suggesting a lack of confidence in these companies and potential for further price declines.
- ETF Performance Analysis: The quantum computing ETF (Defiance Quantum ETF, QTUM) has also been affected, and the deteriorating market environment may impact investor decisions regarding long-term investments in the quantum computing sector, increasing uncertainty within the industry.
See More
Quantum Computing Stocks Face Major Risks Amidst Opportunities
- Market Potential: Quantum computing is projected to create between $450 billion and $850 billion in global economic value by 2040, offering substantial return potential for investors despite being significantly smaller than the trillion-dollar AI market.
- Stock Price Surge: As of October 2025, shares of IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. have skyrocketed by 670%, 6,217%, 3,912%, and 2,798% respectively over the past 12 months, reflecting strong market confidence in quantum computing.
- Significant Financing Risks: These four quantum computing companies collectively issued over $4.1 billion in common stock and warrants in 2025 to raise capital, indicating their unproven operating models and posing dilution risks for existing shareholders.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: With major players like Amazon and Microsoft ramping up investments in quantum computing, the low barriers to entry could threaten the market position of pure-play quantum companies, potentially leading to their obsolescence as the technology matures.
See More
Quantum Computing Stocks Surge Up to 6,200% Over the Past Year
- Quantum Stock Performance: As of mid-October, stocks of IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. surged by up to 6,200% over the past year, reflecting strong investor confidence and robust market demand for this nascent technology.
- Market Potential Analysis: According to a forecast by Boston Consulting Group, quantum computing could generate between $450 billion and $850 billion in global economic value by 2040, attracting significant investor interest despite its smaller market size compared to artificial intelligence.
- Risks and Challenges: While quantum computing stocks present substantial return potential, they face risks such as share dilution and slow commercialization; collectively, these four companies issued over $4.1 billion in common stock and warrants in 2025 to raise capital, which could negatively impact existing shareholders.
- Competitive Pressure: With the
See More
