AMD Aims to Capture AI Market from Nvidia; Government Purchases Ongoing; Fed Split on Decisions
AMD Investor Day Insights: AMD aims to capture over 10% of the AI market share from NVIDIA, projecting a 35% annual growth rate and targeting $20 earnings per share by 2030, while its total addressable market has increased to over $1 trillion.
Market Reactions and Economic Indicators: Following AMD's investor day, stock volatility was influenced by high investor expectations, while the Fed is considering interest rate cuts amid mixed economic signals, including stagnant wages and a potential trade deal with the U.S. for India.
Trends in Wage and Consumer Spending: There are signs of declining wages for hourly workers, which could negatively impact low-end consumers and companies catering to them, as exemplified by Walgreens' recent wage cuts.
Investment Strategies and Market Positioning: Investors are advised to maintain long-term positions while considering protective measures like cash or short-term trades, and to focus on high-quality bonds in a traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy due to current market conditions.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on AMD
About AMD
About the author

- Strategic Collaboration Expansion: AMD and TCS are co-developing AI infrastructure based on the AMD 'Helios' platform to support India's national AI initiatives, which is expected to significantly enhance enterprises' AI deployment capabilities and operational efficiencies.
- High-Performance Computing Platform: The newly deployed 200MW 'Helios' architecture will leverage AMD Instinct™ MI455X GPUs and EPYC™ 'Venice' CPUs, aiming to provide enterprises with an efficient AI training and inference platform, thereby accelerating digital transformation across industries.
- Data Center Blueprint: The two companies will offer an AI-ready data center blueprint supporting 200MW capacity, aiming to collaborate with hyperscalers and AI companies to accelerate data center build-outs in India, further promoting the adoption of AI technologies.
- Long-Term Strategic Vision: This collaboration marks AMD's first 'Helios' infrastructure deployment in India and aims to provide advanced infrastructure solutions for AI companies and global enterprises, facilitating deeper participation in the AI ecosystem.
- Bitcoin Holdings: Riot Platforms currently holds over 18,000 Bitcoins, valued at more than $1.2 billion at current prices, providing substantial support for stock volatility and reflecting the significant impact of the active Bitcoin market on the company's financial health.
- Earnings Release Announcement: The company announced it will release its Q4 and full-year financial results on February 24, with investors eagerly anticipating the implications of its transition from a Bitcoin miner to a data center and AI infrastructure player, which could positively affect future profitability.
- Land Purchase Agreement: Riot has entered into a land purchase and lease agreement for approximately 200 acres in Texas with AMD, which will utilize the land for its high-performance computing needs, potentially enhancing Riot's long-term earnings power, especially if forward earnings and EBITDA guidance improve in the upcoming financial commentary.
- Market Optimism: Despite the recent weakness in AI-related stocks, investors are taking a relatively bullish view of Riot, as evidenced by a 5.3% increase in stock price over the past five trading days, indicating confidence in the company's future developments.
- Surge in Market Spending: Five companies have committed to spending $700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2023, with projections of data center capital expenditures reaching $1.4 trillion by 2030, indicating a strong investment appetite for AI technologies that could drive stock prices higher.
- Nvidia's Market Dominance: Nvidia holds approximately 90% market share in the GPU space, leveraging its early promotion of the CUDA software platform to become the dominant player in AI model training, which is expected to sustain its competitive edge in the market.
- Growth Opportunities for AMD: While AMD may not surpass Nvidia, capturing a share in the AI inference market could significantly enhance its market position, especially with a multi-year deal with OpenAI valued at around $200 billion, further solidifying its role in the AI sector.
- Advantage of CPU and GPU Integration: AMD's leadership in the data center CPU market, combined with its ability to integrate GPUs and CPUs, may provide a competitive advantage for future growth, particularly against the backdrop of surging AI infrastructure spending.
- Market Spending Forecast: Five companies are projected to spend $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year, indicating a strong investment appetite for AI technologies, which is expected to drive rapid growth in the related chip market.
- Nvidia's Market Dominance: Nvidia holds approximately 90% market share in the GPU space, leveraging its early development of the CUDA software platform to become the leader in AI model training, and is poised to maintain this dominance in the foreseeable future.
- AMD's Growth Potential: While AMD may not surpass Nvidia in the GPU market, its multi-year deal with OpenAI, potentially worth around $200 billion, positions it well to capitalize on the rapidly expanding AI inference market.
- Investment Recommendation: Analysts suggest that despite Nvidia's market leadership, AMD's smaller AI revenue base and its leadership in data center CPUs present greater growth potential, making it a stock worth considering for investors.
- Stock Surge Drivers: Riot Platforms' stock surged 5.3% this week, primarily driven by a land purchase and lease agreement with AMD, which will support AMD's high-performance computing needs, thereby enhancing market expectations for Riot's long-term earnings potential.
- Bitcoin Holdings Impact: Riot currently holds over 18,000 Bitcoins, valued at more than $1.2 billion at current prices, providing strong support for the company's stock price, especially amid Bitcoin's price volatility.
- Upcoming Earnings Report: The company is set to release its Q4 and full-year financial results on February 24, with investors keenly watching this report to assess the implications of Riot's transition from a Bitcoin miner to a data center and AI infrastructure player.
- Market Outlook: Despite the weak performance of AI-related stocks, analysts generally view Riot's transition as potentially positive, particularly given Bitcoin's strong performance, which may attract more investor interest.
- China Market Recovery: Following the Trump administration's ban on Nvidia chip exports to China in April 2025, Nvidia is expected to resume exports, and if first-quarter revenue expectations reach $8 billion, it could lead to unexpected growth, significantly boosting market confidence.
- Surge in AI Giants' Investment: Major clients of Nvidia, including Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, have announced capital expenditure plans for 2026, with expected spending of $175 billion to $185 billion, $200 billion, and $115 billion to $135 billion respectively, which will drive demand for Nvidia's chips and further solidify its market position.
- New Architecture Driving Growth: Nvidia's upcoming Rubin chip architecture offers significant efficiency improvements over the previous Blackwell generation, requiring only one Rubin chip for every four Blackwell chips for AI model training, which will encourage more companies to upgrade their GPUs, thus driving sustained growth for Nvidia.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: While Nvidia's stock is often deemed expensive, its forward P/E ratio of less than 25 times is near its lowest level in three years, and a projected 20% price increase would bring it to a more reasonable 30 times forward earnings, making it a prime buying opportunity now.









