Alpha Provides 2026 Forecast Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 12 2025
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Should l Buy AMR?
Source: Yahoo Finance
2026 Sales Volume Expectations: Alpha Metallurgical Resources anticipates shipping between 14.4 million and 15.4 million metallurgical tons and an additional 0.7 million to 1.1 million tons of incidental thermal coal in 2026, totaling 15.1 million to 16.5 million tons.
Cost and Expenditure Projections: The company expects coal sales costs to range from $95.00 to $101.00 per ton, with SG&A costs projected between $53 million and $59 million, and capital expenditures estimated at $148 million to $168 million.
Focus on Efficiency and Safety: Alpha's guidance emphasizes a commitment to safe production, efficiency, cost containment, and investment in the Kingston Wildcat mine to enhance the quality of its portfolio.
Forward-Looking Statements: The company acknowledges the inherent risks and uncertainties in its forward-looking statements, which may lead to actual results differing from expectations, and it does not intend to update these statements post-release.
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Analyst Views on AMR
About AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. is a mining company with operations across Virginia and West Virginia. The Company supplies metallurgical products to the steel industry. Its portfolio of mining operations consists of over 14 underground mines, six surface mines and eight coal preparation plants. It extracts, processes and markets metallurgical coal from deep and surface mines for sale to steel and coke producers, industrial customers, and electric utilities. It conducts mining operations only in the United States with mines in Central Appalachia. The Company operates in one segment: Met, which consists of six active mining complexes whose primary product is metallurgical coal that is extracted, processed, and marketed to domestic and international steel and coke producers. The Met segment operations consist of metallurgical coal mines, including Deep Mine 41, Road Fork 52, Black Eagle, and Lynn Branch.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Bullish Outlook for Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
- Financial Resilience: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) operates with no debt and holds over $455 million in cash, showcasing significant financial flexibility and resilience across commodity cycles, thereby creating long-term value for shareholders.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: The company employs a conservative capital allocation philosophy, directing nearly all free cash flow towards buybacks or liquidity preservation rather than heavy reinvestment in new production, making AMR a disciplined compounder that avoids the risks associated with expansionary capital spending.
- Contract Pricing Advantage: AMR mitigates heavy reliance on spot coal markets by contracting approximately 80-85% of its production one year in advance at fixed prices, having secured 3.6 million tons for 2026 at $136 per ton, demonstrating its ability to lock in attractive economics even in uncertain markets.
- Commitment to Shareholder Returns: AMR generates strong cash flow in favorable periods and maintains acceptable returns otherwise, consistently converting cash into shareholder value while reducing its share count over time through ongoing buybacks, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns.
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- Adjusted EBITDA Figures: The Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 stands at $28.5 million, despite incurring approximately $6 million in non-recurring mine recovery and idle costs, indicating strong cost control performance, with full-year costs at the lower end of guidance.
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- Performance Dependency: Significant upside in Ramaco's shares is contingent upon rising met coal prices and operational performance, alongside the successful development of the Brook Mine rare earth elements project to unlock long-term growth potential.
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- Overview of Changes: The rating changes include upgrades, downgrades, and initiations, reflecting analysts' keen response to market dynamics, which may lead to short-term volatility in the affected stocks.
- Investor Focus: For those considering buying PYPL stock, analysts' opinions will serve as a crucial reference point, impacting their investment strategies and risk assessments.
- Market Impact Analysis: Changes in analyst ratings not only affect individual stock performance but may also influence overall market sentiment, prompting investors to closely monitor these developments to adjust their portfolios accordingly.
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Bullish Outlook for Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
- Financial Resilience: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) operates with no debt and holds over $455 million in cash, showcasing significant financial flexibility and resilience across commodity cycles, thereby creating long-term value for shareholders.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: The company employs a conservative capital allocation philosophy, directing nearly all free cash flow towards buybacks or liquidity preservation rather than heavy reinvestment in new production, making AMR a disciplined compounder that avoids the risks associated with expansionary capital spending.
- Contract Pricing Advantage: AMR mitigates heavy reliance on spot coal markets by contracting approximately 80-85% of its production one year in advance at fixed prices, having secured 3.6 million tons for 2026 at $136 per ton, demonstrating its ability to lock in attractive economics even in uncertain markets.
- Commitment to Shareholder Returns: AMR generates strong cash flow in favorable periods and maintains acceptable returns otherwise, consistently converting cash into shareholder value while reducing its share count over time through ongoing buybacks, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Reports Preliminary Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Financial Performance Overview: Alpha Metallurgical Resources expects a net loss of $17.3 million for Q4 2025, translating to a diluted loss per share of $1.34, reflecting the challenging met coal market environment throughout most of 2025, although low-vol met coal indexes improved in Q4, most benefits are deferred to Q1 2026.
- Adjusted EBITDA Figures: The Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 stands at $28.5 million, despite incurring approximately $6 million in non-recurring mine recovery and idle costs, indicating strong cost control performance, with full-year costs at the lower end of guidance.
- Coal Sales Performance: The company sold 3.8 million tons of met coal in Q4, generating coal revenues of $519.1 million, with non-GAAP coal revenues at $436.3 million, demonstrating resilience in sales amidst price pressures.
- Liquidity and Capital Resources: As of December 31, 2025, the company reported total liquidity of $524.3 million, including $366 million in cash and cash equivalents, showcasing financial robustness that supports future investments and operations.
See More
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- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Ramaco Resources from Hold to Buy with a $30 price target, indicating a clear upside risk to consensus met coal price forecasts, which could drive the stock higher.
- Geopolitical Impact: The ongoing escalation of geopolitical risks related to critical minerals is viewed positively for Ramaco's stock, potentially boosting investor confidence and attracting more capital inflows.
- Performance Dependency: Significant upside in Ramaco's shares is contingent upon rising met coal prices and operational performance, alongside the successful development of the Brook Mine rare earth elements project to unlock long-term growth potential.
- Industry Outlook: Jefferies analysts express optimism for coal miners, reiterating Buy ratings on Warrior Met Coal, Core Natural Resources, and Peabody Energy, reflecting confidence in the overall sector and potential investment opportunities.
See More
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- Energy Sector Performance: The energy sector has underperformed over the past year, ranking ninth out of eleven major sectors.
- State Street ETF Ranking: The State Street Energy Select Sector ETF reflects this lagging performance within the broader market context.
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- High Strike Price Activity: The $40 strike call option saw 5,474 contracts traded today, representing about 547,400 underlying shares, reflecting investor expectations for future price increases, which could influence the stock's price trajectory.
- Increased Market Participation: The surge in options trading suggests a growing interest among investors in Darling Ingredients, potentially leading to increased stock price volatility and impacting the company's market performance.
- Comparative Analysis: Compared to Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc's options trading volume, Darling's significantly higher volume indicates its relative activity in the market, which may attract more investor attention.
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