Written by Michael A. Johnson, Lead Editor & Market Strategist
U.S. Economic Data and Market Reactions
On Thursday morning, the U.S. reported the following economic indicators:
Inflation and Unemployment Claims
- August CPI (YoY): 2.9% (expected: 2.90%, previous: 2.70%)
- Core CPI (YoY): 3.1% (expected: 3.10%, previous: 3.10%)
- Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Sept 6): 263,000 (expected: 235,000, previous revised from 237,000 to 236,000)
Traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, predicting three rate cuts by the end of 2025. Futures pricing indicates expectations for four consecutive 25 basis point cuts by January next year. Following the data release, U.S. stock index futures dipped, while spot gold rose by $20.
Stock Movements
- Tech Stocks: Most major tech stocks rose pre-market, with Oracle up over 1%.
- Chinese Stocks: Alibaba gained over 2%, while NIO and Trip.com rose nearly 2%, and GDS Holdings increased by 2%.
Tesla Model Y L Orders Sold Out
Tesla's Model Y L orders for October are sold out, with the website indicating November as the next available delivery date. The Model Y L was launched in the domestic market on August 19 and began deliveries on September 2, with reports of 900 units delivered last week.
Oracle's RPO Concerns
Oracle's first fiscal quarter saw RPO surge to $455 billion, driven by a $300 billion contract with OpenAI. However, JPMorgan raised concerns that most of these orders are long-term, with only about 10% classified as short-term RPO, indicating delayed revenue recognition.
Alibaba's Local Business Strategy
Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about Alibaba's local services, particularly with the launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking," which is expected to reshape local competition and pressure Meituan's profitability.
Opendoor's Leadership Changes
Opendoor Technologies announced the appointment of former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as CEO, leading to a pre-market surge of over 30%. The stock has increased more than 14 times since hitting a historical low in June.
Figure Technology's IPO Update
Figure Technology Solutions plans to price its IPO above the previously adjusted range of $20 to $22 due to strong market demand. The company is set to list on Nasdaq under the ticker "FIGR."
Novo Nordisk's Alzheimer's Drug Trial
Novo Nordisk is set to announce clinical trial results for its GLP-1 drug, semaglutide, for Alzheimer's treatment this fall. Analysts estimate a 10% success probability, but a successful outcome could yield an additional $15 billion in annual sales.
Adobe's AI Product Launch
Adobe's stock rose over 2% pre-market as the company launched its first AI agent product suite. Adobe is scheduled to report its Q3 FY2025 earnings after market close.
Robinhood's Social Trading Platform
Robinhood announced the upcoming launch of Robinhood Social, allowing users to track trades of well-known investors in real-time, expected to roll out in early next year.
Starbucks China Sale Update
Starbucks is in the final stages of selling its China business, with four firms, including Sequoia China and Carlyle Group, shortlisted for the acquisition.
Market Sentiment and Predictions
Citi analysts noted that during a dovish Fed period, gold and equities often rise together, a correlation currently underestimated by the market. The MSCI Global Index has hit record highs for four consecutive days, reflecting strong market sentiment.
Conclusion
The market is currently influenced by various economic indicators and corporate developments, with significant movements in tech stocks and ongoing adjustments in investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
