US Stock Market Outlook: Oil Prices Drop, Jobless Claims Data Imminent, Semiconductor Sector Declines.

US Stock Market Pre-Market Update

As of Thursday's pre-market, all three major US stock index futures are up. The Dow futures rose by 0.13%, Nasdaq futures increased by 0.03%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.07%.

Notable Stock Movements

• Tech Stocks: Mixed performance in pre-market trading.

  • Microsoft (MSFT) up 0.80%
  • Google-A (GOOGL) up 1.22%
  • Tesla (TSLA) up 1.79%

• Semiconductors: Generally down.

  • AMD down 1.74%
  • Micron Technology (MU) down 2.38%

• Optical Communication: Mostly lower.

  • Coherent (COHR) down 3.69%
  • Lumentum (LITE) down 1.81%

• Gold Sector: Strong performance.

  • Newmont Corporation (NEM) up 2.31%
  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) up 2.30%

Shell's Strong Q1 Profit

Shell reported a stronger-than-expected profit for Q1, driven by soaring oil and gas prices amid the Iran conflict. The adjusted net profit reached $6.92 billion, significantly higher than last year's $5.58 billion and above analyst expectations of $6.36 billion. The company attributes this growth to improved trading performance and lower operational costs.

As of the latest update, Shell's stock is down 1.95% in after-hours trading.

ARM's Record Q4 Performance

ARM Holdings (ARM) announced a record Q4 for fiscal year 2026, with revenue up 20% year-over-year to $1.49 billion. The demand for their new AGI CPU product has doubled to $2 billion within six weeks of its launch. CEO Rene Haas indicated that the data center segment is expected to become ARM's largest business.

Coherent's Order Surge

Coherent (COHR) reported a significant increase in orders, with backlogs extending to 2028. The company is ramping up production capacity for its 1.6T optical modules, which are being released at an impressive pace.

SanDisk's Performance Amid AI Demand

SanDisk (SNDK) has seen a return rate of over 356% this year, driven by AI reshaping storage needs. Analysts are debating whether this growth is a permanent shift or a peak in the cyclical nature of the flash memory industry.

McDonald's Strong Q1 Earnings

McDonald's (MCD) reported Q1 revenue of $6.52 billion, exceeding expectations of $6.47 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $2.83, above the forecast of $2.74.

Labor Market and Economic Outlook

The market anticipates a significant drop in the US non-farm payrolls for April, with expectations of only 65,000 jobs added, down from 178,000. This could support the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in June, with a nearly 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut.

Upcoming Economic Data

• Initial jobless claims expected at 205,000
• Average hourly earnings for April
• Adjusted non-farm payrolls for April

AI Demand Boosting Semiconductor Sector

The demand for AI infrastructure is accelerating, with expectations for the global semiconductor market to grow over 25% in 2026, particularly in AI-related chips, which may see growth exceeding 80%.

White House Digital Asset Legislation

The White House is aiming to pass the CLARITY Act by July 4, which would clarify regulations around digital assets. This timeline is more aggressive than previous estimates.