Powell's term ends, Wash takes over; Trump may visit China; major financial reports released.

Upcoming CPI Data Release in China and the US

China’s CPI and PPI Data

On May 11, 2023, at 09:30 Beijing time, China will release its April CPI and PPI data.

• Expectations:
  • Domestic demand growth may show divergence, with marginal slowdowns in consumption and investment.
  • PPI year-on-year growth could rise to 1.8%, while CPI may stabilize around 1.0%, indicating a potential GDP deflator growth exceeding 1%.

US CPI Data and Economic Outlook

The US will announce its April CPI data on May 12 at 20:30 Beijing time, followed by PPI data on May 13.

• Market Predictions:
  • The CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% due to increased energy prices influenced by the Middle East situation, following a 0.9% surge in March.
  • Goldman Sachs economists have adjusted their forecasts for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to late 2026 and early 2027, anticipating core PCE inflation closer to 3%.

Key Corporate Earnings Reports

Several major tech companies will report earnings soon, which will impact market sentiment:

• May 12: JD.com ($09618.HK$) will release its earnings.
• May 13: Tencent ($00700.HK$) and Alibaba ($09988.HK$) will report.
• May 14: SMIC ($00981.HK$) and Hua Hong Semiconductor ($01347.HK$) will also announce their results.

Geopolitical Context

The US-Iran situation remains complex, with reports of potential ceasefire agreements amidst ongoing tensions.

• Negotiations: Iran has expressed willingness to negotiate but demands clear guarantees from the US against military aggression.

Notable Financial Events

• Berkshire Hathaway: The firm will disclose its stock holdings as of March 31, with speculation about changes under new CEO Abel.
• Federal Reserve Officials: Several officials, including New York Fed President Williams, will participate in discussions on monetary policy.

Conclusion

Investors should keep an eye on the upcoming CPI and PPI data releases, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments, as these factors will significantly influence market dynamics in the coming weeks.