Oil prices rebound over 2% as US-Iran talks falter; Deutsche Bank to raise rates.

US-Iran Negotiations Hit a Snag: Trump Threatens Escalation, Iran Halts Dialogue

International oil prices surged in early Asian trading after US President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran if Hezbollah continued its attacks on Israel. This raised concerns about the progress of negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude oil opened up 2.2% to $82.30 per barrel, while WTI crude surpassed $78. The trading volume for Brent crude contracts exceeded 11,000 lots within the first ten minutes of trading, indicating heightened market activity.

Semiconductor Industry Experiences Unprecedented Demand Surge

Bernstein Analyst Highlights "Chip Supercycle"

Senior analyst Rasgon noted that the semiconductor industry is witnessing the largest demand explosion he has seen in his career. Last year, total revenue in the sector surpassed $800 billion, with projections for this year reaching $1.3 trillion.

Rasgon emphasized a shift in market focus from "model training" to "AI inference," which is crucial for commercialization. He also pointed out that capacity bottlenecks are spreading from GPUs to HBM storage and semiconductor equipment.

Goldman Sachs Predicts Increased Volatility in Short-Term US Treasury Yields

Goldman Sachs' Kay Haigh stated that Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments following his appointment as Fed Chair could lead to greater volatility in short-term US Treasury yields while stabilizing long-term rates.

Traders are now betting on earlier interest rate hikes, with the probability of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting exceeding 80%.

Upcoming Release of GPT-5.6

Reports suggest that GPT-5.6, which includes mini, standard, and Pro versions, will be released this week. The model features an expanded context window of 1.5 million tokens and is priced at about one-third of its competitors.

Deutsche Bank Adjusts Rate Hike Expectations

Facing persistent inflation and Warsh's hawkish stance, Deutsche Bank has revised its monetary policy predictions, now expecting two rate hikes totaling 50 basis points by 2026, with a possibility of an earlier hike in July.

US Stock Market Performance

The three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.91%, S&P 500 up 1.09%, and Dow Jones up 0.14%. Semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with notable increases in companies like Intel and TSMC.

SpaceX Plans $20 Billion Bond Issuance

SpaceX is reportedly planning to issue at least $20 billion in bonds to refinance a bridge loan. The company aims to complete this process following its record IPO.

EU Antitrust Scrutiny for Microsoft and Amazon

Microsoft's Azure and Amazon Web Services (AWS) are set to face stringent antitrust scrutiny from the EU, with preliminary investigation results expected soon.

Anthropic Commits to Enhanced Cooperation with the White House

Anthropic executives have proposed deeper collaboration with the White House to address safety concerns related to their AI models.

US Government Supports Rare Earth Projects

The US government has signed a conditional loan agreement with Energy Fuels for $725 million to bolster domestic rare earth processing capabilities.

Meta Partners with Crusoe for AI Computing Power

Meta Platforms has signed a deal with Crusoe to purchase computing capacity for AI applications, totaling approximately 1.6 gigawatts.

Google and Broadcom Enter AI Chip Market

Both Google and Broadcom are adopting strategies similar to Nvidia's to penetrate the AI chip market, aiming to capture a share of Nvidia's dominance.

Market Movements in Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, southbound funds saw a net sell-off of HKD 6.792 billion, with notable net purchases in SMIC and other companies.

Upcoming Economic Data and Stock Adjustments

China's one-year and five-year LPR rates will be announced soon, while several companies will be added to major indices, including Marvell Technology and Flex.