Market Adjusts Fed Rate Cut Expectations to 17.7% Ahead of January Meeting

Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert

Source: Coinmarketcap

Updated: Dec 28 2025

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Market Expectation Shift: According to CME FedWatch data, the market has adjusted the probability of a Fed rate cut to 17.7% ahead of the January meeting, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at 82.3%, indicating a cautious market stance on future monetary policy.
Futures Market Reaction: The January contract ZQF6 showed a mid-price of 96.3650 with notable trading activity and elevated open interest, suggesting that the market remains sensitive to potential policy changes and is prepared to react to incoming data volatility.
Inflation vs. Employment Data: Despite the rising cut probability, traders are weighing cooling inflation trends against resilient labor market data, keeping expectations fluid into early 2026, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process.
Crypto Market Response: Bitcoin and Ether traded slightly higher following the FedWatch updates, reflecting sensitivity to rate expectations; however, the muted response suggests that traders view the probability shift as incremental rather than a decisive change, maintaining caution in the absence of clear policy direction.

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Technical Analysis for BTC

Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC). As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Neutral technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 10 technical signals, shows that 5 indicators are flashing buy, while 5 are indicating sell.

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the crypto.

Support, Resistance & Moving Averages. From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.

Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot Points	R1	R2	R3
Classic	56928.28	62002.14	67932.28	73006.14	78936.28	84010.14	89940.28
Fibonacci	62002.14	66205.668	68802.612	73006.14	77209.668	79806.612	84010.14

About BTC

Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.

About the author

Ohris M. Greyoon

Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.

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