IMF Warns of Rising Global Recession Risk if Oil Prices Stay at $120 Through 2027
- Economic Impact of Oil Prices: The IMF warns that if crude oil prices remain between $120 and $130 per barrel through 2027, the global economy could face a technical recession, as their models indicate that sustained high prices would severely strain import-dependent economies, reduce consumer purchasing power, and disrupt already fragile supply chains.
- Recession Threshold: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva specified that sustained high oil prices would likely lead to two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, with energy-importing nations in Europe, Asia, and parts of Africa facing the most acute pressure, while oil-exporting countries might see temporary revenue gains that would be offset by declining global demand.
- Policy Response Challenges: Central banks, already grappling with inflation and interest rate decisions, will face a difficult trade-off between tightening monetary policy to control price pressures and easing to support growth, highlighting the essential need for coordinated policy responses to mitigate adverse outcomes.
- Risk Assessment and Planning: While the IMF did not assign a specific probability to the recession scenario, it described it as a “material risk” that increases with prolonged high oil prices, urging governments and investors to stress-test their exposure to sustained high energy costs as part of their contingency planning.
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Technical Analysis for T
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Threshold (T). As of , Threshold (T) is exhibiting a Neutral technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 5 technical signals, shows that 2 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for T stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the crypto.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages. From a structural perspective, T is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Threshold (T) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 0.00429 | 0.00471 | 0.00504 | 0.00546 | 0.00579 | 0.00621 | 0.00654 |
| Fibonacci | 0.00471 | 0.00499 | 0.00517 | 0.00546 | 0.00574 | 0.00592 | 0.00621 |
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