Bitcoin's Concerning 25% Underwater Supply: A Critical Warning for Investors

Current Market Condition: Over 25% of Bitcoin's supply is currently underwater, reflecting a fragile market reminiscent of early 2022, with significant risks of capitulation as the price hovers around $93,000.

Key Price Levels: Reclaiming the 0.75 quantile at $95,800 and the 0.85 quantile at $106,200 is crucial for shifting market sentiment towards recovery and alleviating immediate selling pressure.

Weak Demand Indicators: ETF inflows have decreased, spot market volumes are low, and macroeconomic uncertainties are contributing to a high-risk environment, with potential price drops below $88,000–$90,000 leading to further declines.

Historical Context and Future Outlook: Past instances of high underwater supply have often marked local bottoms, suggesting that if key supports hold, Bitcoin could still reach $110,000–$115,000 by year-end, with a broader bull run potentially extending to $150,000.