Bitcoin Posts -23.21% Return in Q1 2026, Third-Worst Since 2013

Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert

Source: Coinmarketcap

Updated: Mar 01 2026

Should l Buy BTC?

Q1 Performance: According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin's return in Q1 2026 was -23.21%, marking the third-worst performance since 2013 and significantly below the historical average of 45.90%, indicating extreme market volatility.
Ethereum's Worse Outcome: Ethereum fared even worse with a -32.17% return in the same quarter, also the third-worst since 2016, falling far below its historical average of 66.45%, reflecting overall weakness in the crypto market.
Historical Volatility Analysis: Bitcoin's quarterly returns since 2013 show no consistent first-quarter pattern, as strong performances in 2013 and 2021 skew the historical average, while most years tend to show slight losses, indicating a bearish trend.
Consecutive Losing Quarters: The -23.21% return in Q1 2026 exceeded the -23.07% loss in Q4 2025, resulting in back-to-back losing quarters for Bitcoin, reminiscent of the overall losses seen in 2022 across all four quarters.

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Technical Analysis for BTC

Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC). As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Neutral technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 4 technical signals, shows that 2 indicators are flashing buy, while 2 are indicating sell.

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the crypto.

Support, Resistance & Moving Averages. From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.

Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot Points	R1	R2	R3
Classic	55468.236	60262.118	64462.236	69256.118	73456.236	78250.118	82450.236
Fibonacci	60262.118	63697.826	65820.41	69256.118	72691.826	74814.41	78250.118

About BTC

Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.

About the author

Ohris M. Greyoon

Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.

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