Analysis of Bitcoin Market Cycles

Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert

Source: Coinmarketcap

Updated: 3 days ago

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Historical Price Drawdowns: Bitcoin experienced a significant correction of approximately 87% over 14 months after reaching its all-time high in 2013, indicating a highly sensitive market reaction to peaks that affected investor confidence.
Impact of Institutional Participation: In 2021, Bitcoin peaked near $69,000 with a subsequent drawdown of about 77%, suggesting that as institutional investors entered the market, the severity of corrections may be decreasing, indicating a potential maturation of the market.
Impact of ETF Approval: The approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. SEC in January 2024 led to Bitcoin reaching a new high of $126,200 in October 2025, breaking previous seasonal patterns and demonstrating strong institutional demand.
Evolution of Market Cycles: Bitcoin's four-year cycle is shifting from a purely supply-driven event to one influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, with the current drawdown around 50%, potentially shallower than historical levels, reflecting changes in market structure.

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Technical Analysis for BTC

Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC). As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Buy technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 8 technical signals, shows that 5 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the crypto.

Support, Resistance & Moving Averages. From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.

Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot Points	R1	R2	R3
Classic	43863.091	51497.001	59246.281	66880.191	74629.471	82263.381	90012.661
Fibonacci	51497.001	57373.379	61003.812	66880.191	72756.569	76387.002	82263.381

About BTC

Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.

About the author

Ohris M. Greyoon

Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.

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