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SEM Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Select Medical Holdings Corp (SEM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
16.440
1 Day change
0.18%
52 Week Range
18.610
Analysis Updated At
2026/04/24
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Select Medical Holdings Corp (SEM) is currently not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term horizon. The stock is being sold for $16.50 per share in cash as part of an acquisition agreement, which limits upside potential. Additionally, the company's recent financial performance has been weak, with significant declines in net income, EPS, and gross margin. While technical indicators show bullish moving averages, the RSI indicates overbought conditions, and the MACD is negative. Analysts have also lowered price targets recently. Given these factors, holding or avoiding investment in SEM at this time is recommended.

Technical Analysis

The stock shows bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the RSI is at 86.962, indicating overbought conditions. The MACD histogram is -0.0156, below 0, and negatively contracting. Key support and resistance levels are tight, with a pivot at 16.408, R1 at 16.444, and S1 at 16.372.

Options Data

Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
1
Buy
9

Positive Catalysts

  • The stock is being sold for $16.50 per share in cash to a consortium led by executives and directors, providing a clear exit strategy for current shareholders.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Recent financial performance is weak, with a 307.20% YoY drop in net income and a 328.57% YoY drop in EPS. Analysts have lowered price targets due to a Q4 adjusted EBITDA miss and softer-than-expected 2026 guidance. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, and the MACD is negative.

Financial Performance

In 2025/Q4, revenue remained flat YoY at $1,396,634,000. Net income dropped significantly to $19,547,000 (-307.20% YoY), EPS fell to 0.16 (-328.57% YoY), and gross margin decreased to 7.85 (-17.02% YoY).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

RBC Capital recently lowered the price target from $20 to $19 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Analysts are cautious due to a Q4 adjusted EBITDA miss and softer 2026 guidance but note no material headwinds in the CIRH segment.

Wall Street analysts forecast SEM stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast SEM stock price to rise
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.410
sliders
Low
17
Averages
18.75
High
21
Current: 16.410
sliders
Low
17
Averages
18.75
High
21
RBC Capital
Outperform
maintain
$20 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$20 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
maintain
Outperform
Reason
RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Select Medical to $19 from $20 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The stock declined about 7% on Friday after the company reported a Q4 adjusted EBITDA miss and softer-than-expected 2026 guidance, though the firm is encouraged that management does not expect a material headwind related to the high-cost outlier threshold within its CIRH segment in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BofA
Joanna Gajuk
NULL -> No Rating
downgrade
2025-11-25
Reason
BofA
Joanna Gajuk
Price Target
2025-11-25
downgrade
NULL -> No Rating
Reason
BofA analyst Joanna Gajuk moved to No Rating on Select Medical after the company received a non-binding indication of interest from Executive Chairman and co-founder Robert Ortenzio to acquire all of the outstanding shares for $16.00 to $16.20 per share in cash. The firm is "not surprised" by the offer given that the stock has been trading at a depressed valuation, but views shares as no longer trading on fundamentals given the offer.
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