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SEM Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Select Medical Holdings Corp (SEM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
16.250
1 Day change
-0.12%
52 Week Range
18.610
Analysis Updated At
2026/03/20
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Select Medical Holdings Corp (SEM) is a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term focus and $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. The stock is being acquired by a consortium led by its executives and directors for $16.50 per share in cash, which is slightly above the current pre-market price of $16.27. This provides a clear and immediate upside potential for the investor.

Technical Analysis

The stock's technical indicators show a bullish trend with moving averages aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). The MACD is above 0, indicating positive momentum, while RSI at 72.946 is in the neutral zone. Key support and resistance levels are close to the current price, suggesting limited downside risk.

Options Data

Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
3
Buy
7

Positive Catalysts

  • The acquisition announcement at $16.50 per share in cash provides a clear upside potential. Additionally, the MACD and moving averages indicate a bullish technical trend.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • The company reported weak Q4 financials with a significant drop in net income (-307.20% YoY) and EPS (-328.57% YoY). Analysts have also lowered their price target from $20 to $19.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, revenue remained flat YoY at $1.396 billion. However, net income dropped significantly to $19.55 million (-307.20% YoY), and EPS fell to $0.16 (-328.57% YoY). Gross margin also declined to 7.85% (-17.02% YoY), reflecting operational challenges.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

RBC Capital recently lowered the price target from $20 to $19 but maintained an Outperform rating. Analysts are cautiously optimistic despite weak financials, citing no material headwinds expected in 2026.

Wall Street analysts forecast SEM stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast SEM stock price to rise
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.270
sliders
Low
17
Averages
18.75
High
21
Current: 16.270
sliders
Low
17
Averages
18.75
High
21
RBC Capital
Outperform
maintain
$20 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$20 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
maintain
Outperform
Reason
RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Select Medical to $19 from $20 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The stock declined about 7% on Friday after the company reported a Q4 adjusted EBITDA miss and softer-than-expected 2026 guidance, though the firm is encouraged that management does not expect a material headwind related to the high-cost outlier threshold within its CIRH segment in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BofA
Joanna Gajuk
NULL -> No Rating
downgrade
2025-11-25
Reason
BofA
Joanna Gajuk
Price Target
2025-11-25
downgrade
NULL -> No Rating
Reason
BofA analyst Joanna Gajuk moved to No Rating on Select Medical after the company received a non-binding indication of interest from Executive Chairman and co-founder Robert Ortenzio to acquire all of the outstanding shares for $16.00 to $16.20 per share in cash. The firm is "not surprised" by the offer given that the stock has been trading at a depressed valuation, but views shares as no longer trading on fundamentals given the offer.
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