RYAN Should I Buy
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Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc (RYAN) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this moment. The stock is facing significant headwinds, including a pre-market price drop of -9.76%, bearish technical indicators, and mixed financial performance. While there are some positive catalysts like hedge fund buying and revenue growth, the negative catalysts, including missed earnings expectations, declining net income, and reduced analyst price targets, outweigh the positives. A hold strategy is recommended for now, as the stock does not present a compelling entry point.
The technical indicators are bearish. The MACD is negative and contracting, the RSI is neutral at 38.115, and the moving averages show a bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its support level of 43.403, with resistance at 48.675. The pre-market price drop of -9.76% further confirms the bearish sentiment.
Hedge funds are aggressively buying, with a 53579.79% increase in buying activity over the last quarter.
Revenue growth of 13% YoY in Q4
Dividend increase of 8.3%, signaling confidence in shareholder returns.
Pre-market price drop of -9.76%.
Missed Q4 earnings expectations with non-GAAP EPS of $0.45, below estimates by $0.
Declining net income in Q4 2025, down to $7.98 million from $13.75 million YoY.
Analysts have significantly lowered price targets, citing margin and organic growth concerns.
Bearish technical indicators and a high chance of short-term price decline.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 13% YoY to $751 million, but net income declined significantly to $7.98 million from $13.75 million YoY. EPS dropped to $0.23, down -145.10% YoY. While revenue growth is positive, the decline in profitability and missed earnings expectations are concerning.
Analyst sentiment is mixed to negative. Recent price target reductions include Keefe Bruyette ($55 from $65), Barclays ($52 from $58), and Piper Sandler ($43 from $58). Analysts cite concerns over lower-than-expected margins, organic growth headwinds, and softening pricing in the P&C insurance sector. However, some analysts, like BofA, maintain a Buy rating with a higher price target of $82, citing undervalued underwriter valuations.
