IP Should I Buy
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International Paper is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 who is unwilling to wait for a better entry. The stock is under near-term pressure after a weaker-than-expected quarter, analyst targets are trending lower, technicals remain bearish, and options positioning is mixed rather than strongly bullish. I would not buy it today; I would wait for a clearer reversal or stronger fundamental confirmation.
The current trend is bearish. MACD histogram is negative and expanding, showing downside momentum is still building. The moving averages are aligned bearishly with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, which confirms the broader trend remains weak. RSI_6 at 21 suggests the stock is oversold, but oversold alone is not a buy signal when momentum is still negative. Price is trading near support at 30.536, with the current pre-market price at 30.59, just above that level. If support fails, the next downside area is S2 at 28.504. The short-term pattern data suggests a possible bounce, but not enough to override the weak trend.
["Q1 profit beat expectations, with reported profit of $60 million.", "Gross margin improved to 20.73%, showing some operational recovery.", "Revenue was up 1.19% YoY in the latest quarter.", "There is a planned separation of the North American and EMEA operations, which could unlock value over time.", "Short-term pattern data suggests a rebound is possible over the next week to month."]
["Q1 sales missed estimates and the stock sold off sharply after earnings.", "Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered, and FY26 EBITDA guidance was cut to $3.2B-$3.5B from $3.5B-$3.7B.", "Analysts are cutting price targets across the board, showing weakening expectations.", "Near-term industry backdrop remains difficult due to energy, fiber, and tariff-related cost pressure.", "Technical trend is bearish and momentum is still deteriorating.", "Hedge funds and insiders show no meaningful bullish trading trend.", "No recent congress trading data or influential figure trading support is available."]
Latest quarter: Q1 2026. Financials were mixed. Revenue came in at $5.971 billion, up 1.19% YoY, so top-line growth was modestly positive. Gross margin improved to 20.73%, which is a constructive sign. However, net income fell to $60 million, down 157.14% YoY, and EPS dropped to $0.11, down 145.83% YoY, showing that profitability remains under pressure despite the better margin profile. Overall, the quarter showed better sales scale but weaker bottom-line performance and reduced guidance.
Analyst sentiment has turned more cautious. JPMorgan cut its view to Neutral and lowered its price target to $46 after saying Q1 EBITDA was below consensus and Q2 guidance was much weaker than expected. RBC still has Outperform but reduced its target to $48 from $54. Truist kept Buy but cut target to $44. Citi kept Buy but lowered target to $44. UBS moved to Neutral with a $40 target, and Deutsche Bank initiated Hold at $38. The overall Wall Street view is split, but the direction of revisions is negative, with multiple target cuts and several Neutral/Hold stances outweighing the remaining bullish calls.
