COIN Should I Buy
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Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) is not a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy at this moment. The stock is currently in a bearish trend, with weak financial performance in the latest quarter, insider selling, and a lack of strong positive catalysts. While analysts maintain a generally positive long-term view, the immediate setup is not ideal due to recent revenue misses and declining trading volumes.
The technical indicators show a bearish trend. The MACD is negative and expanding downward, RSI indicates the stock is oversold at 19.571, and moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading below key support levels, with S1 at 145.545 and S2 at 131.48.
The company's total trading volume for 2025 grew 156% year-over-year, and subscription and services revenue increased to $2.8 billion, indicating diversification beyond transaction-based revenues. Analysts see potential upside with the passage of crypto market structure legislation.
The company reported a 21.59% YoY revenue decline in Q4 2025, with a significant net loss of $667 million. Insider selling has increased by 322.43% over the last month, and hedge funds remain neutral. Analysts have lowered price targets ahead of the Q4 earnings report, citing weak transaction volumes and broader market challenges.
In Q4 2025, Coinbase's revenue dropped to $1.78 billion (-21.59% YoY), net income fell to -$667 million (-151.69% YoY), and EPS declined to -2.17 (-146.07% YoY). However, gross margin slightly improved to 87.73% (+1.96% YoY).
Analysts maintain a mixed to positive outlook, with several firms lowering price targets but keeping Buy or Overweight ratings. The average price target has decreased, reflecting near-term challenges but long-term potential. Some analysts view the current price as an attractive entry point, but others prefer to wait for further pullbacks.
