Coinbase Q1 Earnings Expected to Drop to $0.36
Three crypto-infrastructure companies report after today's close in what amounts to the sector's most concentrated single-day earnings test of 2026: Coinbase on whether its services business can hold as trading volumes crater, IREN on whether its AI cloud pivot is generating real revenue, and CleanSpark on whether hyperscale colocation is becoming a material income line. Alongside the prints, MARA Holdings is racing a May 15 deadline to clear a structural hurdle on its $1.52B Long Ridge gas plant acquisition, and legislation that would formally classify bitcoin and ether as CFTC commodities is headed for a Senate markup next week. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with "Crypto Currents," daily from The Fly. Join us at 2 PM ET for your essential briefing on the fast-moving world of cryptocurrency on FlyCast radio.COINBASE FACES THE VOLUME CLIFF:Coinbase(COIN)reports Q1 results after today's close with the earnings call at 5:30 PM ET. Wall Street consensus heading into the print is roughly 36c EPS vs. $1.94 last year, and revenue of approximately $1.5B, down roughly 26% vs. last year.. Coinbase guided Q1 subscription and services revenue to $550M–$630M, a 27% shortfall vs. prior Street consensus of $747.5M, and announced a roughly 14% workforce reduction of approximately 700 jobs on May 5, attributed to market cyclicality and AI efficiency initiatives. Today's number is a direct read on whether Coinbase's subscription and services moat can absorb a sharper-than-expected trading volume decline. Forward commentary on the "Everything Exchange" buildout, stablecoin market share, and any CLARITY Act custody pipeline will set the tape for every crypto-exposed equity heading into the back half of the week.IREN AND CLEANSPARK ALSO PRINT TODAY:IREN(IREN)reports Q3 results at 5:00 PM ET tonight. IRENannounced the acquisition of Mirantis days before the printand expanded AI cloud capacity to 150,000 GPUs targeting $3.7B+ in AI Cloud ARR by end of 2026. The key watch is whether the AI cloud revenue run-rate is tracking toward that $3.7B ARR target and whether bitcoin mining margin compression is accelerating the pivot timeline.CleanSpark(CLSK)completes the trifecta, reporting Q2 after the close today with a management webcast set for May 11 at 4:30 PM ET.Q1 showed $181.2M in revenue, up 11.6% quarter-over-quarter, with cash of $458.1M. Watch whether CLSK's AI/hyperscale colocation revenue line makes a material debut in the Q2 print and how much of the 1.8 GW contracted power capacity is being monetized beyond pure-play bitcoin mining.MARA LONG RIDGE CONSENT PUSH:MARA Holdings(MARA)launched a consent solicitation targeting holders of the 8.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2032 issued by Long Ridge Energy,seeking noteholder approval to amend the indentureso that MARA's pending $1.52B acquisition of Long Ridge does not constitute a "Change of Control" event under the notes. MARA announced the definitive agreement to acquire Long Ridge, a 505 MW combined-cycle gas plant in Hannibal, Ohio, plus 1,600+ acres, on April 30 for roughly $1.52B in total transaction value, including at least $785M of assumed debt backstopped by a Barclays bridge loan. The solicitation expires at 5:00 PM New York time on May 15, subject to extension. Failure to obtain consent could trigger a mandatory buy-in of the 8.75% notes at par, adding material cost to the transaction.MINERS PIVOT TO AI INFRASTRUCTURE:Core Scientific(CORZ)posted Q1 total revenue of $115.2M, up 44.9% vs. last year,driven by colocation revenue of $77.5M vs. $8.6M in Q1 FY25, an increase of more than 800%. Self-mining revenue fell to $30.1M from $67.2M, down 55% vs. last year, as the AI/HPC pivot deliberately displaces bitcoin production. Core Scientific closed $3.3B in 7.75% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 on May 6, funding Muskogee, Oklahoma, and Pecos, Texas campus expansions, bringing total power pipeline to 4.5 GW. CORZ shares fell roughly 9% on the session following the print as no new AI/HPC colocation contracts were announced.LEGISLATION AND THE FED:Senate Banking Committee chairman Tim Scott and Senator Cynthia Lummis have both confirmed a markup of the CLARITY Act is expected during the week of May 11, after missing an April target. The bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025; Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks unveiled a bipartisan stablecoin yield compromise on May 2. Passage would formally designate bitcoin, ether(ETH-USD), solana(SOL-USD), XRP(XRP-USD), cardano(ADA-USD), and 13 other tokens as CFTC-regulated commodities.STABLECOINS AND PARTNERSHIPS:Mastercard(MA)and Yellow Cardannounced a strategic partnership to accelerate stablecoin-enabled payments across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, using Mastercard's Multi-Token Network settlement infrastructure alongside Yellow Card's regulated stablecoin rails and local licensing. The initial focus spans the UAE, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana, targeting cross-border remittances, B2B settlement, treasury management, and digital loyalty networks.PRICE ACTION:As of time of writing, bitcoin was trading at $79,959.88, while ether was trading at$2,296.69,according to price data from TipRanks.
