AXS Should I Buy
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Given the investor's beginner level, long-term strategy, and available capital, Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS) is not a strong buy at the moment. The stock is experiencing negative price momentum, with technical indicators showing bearish trends. Additionally, insider and hedge fund selling activity, coupled with a lack of recent positive news or catalysts, suggests caution. While the company's financials show revenue growth and stable EPS, the net income decline and mixed analyst sentiment do not support immediate investment.
The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend. The MACD is negatively expanding, the RSI is neutral at 43.925, and moving averages are converging, indicating no strong directional momentum. Key support levels are at 100.429 and 98.385, with resistance at 103.738 and 107.047. The stock closed at $102.59, below the pivot point of $103.738, signaling potential weakness.
Analysts have raised price targets recently, with multiple firms maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings. The company ended 2025 with strong momentum, supported by accelerating premium growth and stable loss ratios. Q4 2025 earnings beat expectations with an EPS increase of 8.58% YoY.
Insiders and hedge funds are aggressively selling, with insider selling up 19,913.40% in the last month and hedge fund selling up 920.02% last quarter. The stock has a 70% chance of declining in the short term, with a projected -9.21% drop in the next week. Analysts have noted softening market conditions in the P&C insurance sector, which could impact future growth.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 17.76% YoY to $1.734 billion, and EPS grew by 8.58% YoY to $3.67. However, net income declined by 1.41% YoY to $282.04 million, reflecting potential challenges in profitability despite revenue growth.
Analyst sentiment is mixed but leans positive overall. Recent upgrades include price targets ranging from $120 to $141, with Buy or Outperform ratings from firms like Mizuho, UBS, and RBC Capital. However, BofA downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing concerns about lower EPS growth compared to peers and potential risks in a softening market.
