The analyst rating from UBS is based on the elevated supply risks in the Middle East, which have led to increased international aluminum and thermal coal prices. The report highlights that aluminum and thermal coal are significantly affected by the ongoing conflict in the region, following oil and natural gas. Specifically, UBS notes that approximately 650,000 tons of aluminum supply have already been interrupted, and potential blockages in shipping routes could lead to further disruptions, increasing short-term price risks for aluminum. Additionally, the report mentions that high natural gas prices are supporting coal prices, prompting UBS to raise its price forecasts for both aluminum and thermal coal for the coming years.
