What stocks have guaranteed gains

Important Note

No stock can offer guaranteed gains. Markets are uncertain, and even the strongest companies can decline in the short term. What these filters do is focus on higher-probability, lower-risk US stocks that have favorable technical, fundamental, and sentiment characteristics.

Screening Filters

1. Region: US

   • Purpose: Limits the search to US-listed stocks.
   • Rationale: The user specifically asked for US stocks, so this keeps the screen aligned with that requirement.

2. Market Cap: Large

   • Purpose: Focuses on large-cap companies.
   • Rationale: Large-cap stocks are generally more stable, better established, and less volatile than smaller companies, which is useful when searching for more reliable opportunities.

3. Beta: LowRisk

   • Purpose: Selects stocks with lower-than-average market volatility.
   • Rationale: Since “guaranteed gains” are impossible, the next best approach is to reduce downside risk. Low-beta stocks tend to move less aggressively and are usually more defensive.

4. Moving Average Relationship: PriceAboveMA200, PriceAboveMA20

   • Purpose: Requires the stock price to be above both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages.
   • Rationale: This suggests the stock is in both short-term and long-term uptrends. Stocks trading above these levels often have stronger momentum and trend confirmation.

5. RSI Category: Moderate

   • Purpose: Filters for stocks that are neither overbought nor oversold.
   • Rationale: A moderate RSI helps avoid stocks that may be extended too far upward and due for a pullback, while still showing healthy trading momentum.

6. Is Index Component: GSPC, NDX, DJI

   • Purpose: Restricts the universe to stocks included in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, or Dow Jones Industrial Average.
   • Rationale: These index components are typically large, liquid, and widely followed companies, which improves quality and reduces the chance of unstable or speculative names.

7. News Driver: Positive

   • Purpose: Includes stocks with favorable recent news flow.
   • Rationale: Positive news can support near-term price strength through improving sentiment, earnings upgrades, product launches, or other catalysts.

8. One-Month Predict Return: min 0

   • Purpose: Keeps stocks with a non-negative modeled one-month expected return.
   • Rationale: This is a forward-looking filter aimed at excluding names with poor short-term outlooks.

9. One-Week Rise Prob: min 0

   • Purpose: Keeps stocks with at least non-negative estimated probability of rising over the next week.
   • Rationale: This supports short-term upside screening, although it does not guarantee gains.

10. Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy, Moderate Buy

    • Purpose: Selects stocks with favorable analyst sentiment.
    • Rationale: Strong or moderate buy consensus indicates that professional analysts generally expect better-than-average performance, adding another layer of confidence.

Why These Filters Work Together

• They focus on high-quality US large-cap stocks rather than speculative names.
• They combine trend strength (price above key moving averages), risk control (low beta, moderate RSI), and positive catalysts (news and analyst sentiment).
• They also include forecast-based filters to tilt toward names with better expected near-term performance.

Bottom Line

These filters do not identify stocks with guaranteed gains, but they are appropriate for finding US stocks with a higher probability of continued strength, especially among large, liquid, established companies with supportive technicals, sentiment, and analyst backing.