Stocks that are bearish tmr

Note on “bearish tomorrow”

No screener (or analyst) can guarantee which specific stocks will be bearish tomorrow. What we can do is tilt the search toward stocks that, based on technicals and predictive metrics, have a higher probability of underperforming or moving down in the very near term. That’s exactly what these filters aim to do.

Screening Filters

1. RSI Category: moderate

   • Purpose: Focus on stocks that are neither extremely oversold nor extremely overbought.
   • Rationale:
     • If RSI were very low (oversold), a stock might be due for a short-term bounce, which conflicts with the “bearish tomorrow” idea.
     • If RSI were very high (overbought), it could already have spiked and become more volatile in both directions.
     • A “moderate” RSI suggests a more stable, ongoing downtrend or neutral momentum, making a continued weak/negative move tomorrow more plausible and less prone to sharp reversals.

2. Moving Average Relationship: PriceBelowMA20

   • Purpose: Identify stocks trading below their 20‑day moving average.
   • Rationale:
     • The 20‑day MA is a short‑term trend indicator.
     • Price below the 20‑day MA is a classic technical sign of short‑term bearishness or downward bias.
     • This aligns directly with “bearish tomorrow,” since the recent trend is already down or weak.

3. 1-Week Price Change %: max: -2

   • Purpose: Select stocks that have fallen over the last week by at least around 2% (i.e., performance ≤ -2%).
   • Rationale:
     • Recent negative performance indicates selling pressure and bearish sentiment.
     • A stock that has been sliding over the past week is more consistent with an ongoing bearish phase than one that’s flat or rising.
     • This supports the idea that bearishness might persist into tomorrow rather than being a one-off move.

4. One-Day Rise Probability: max: 45

   • Purpose: Filter for stocks where the model’s estimated probability of rising tomorrow is relatively low (≤ 45%).
   • Rationale:
     • A lower probability of a positive move tomorrow means a higher implied probability of a flat/down day.
     • This uses statistical modeling (rather than only chart patterns) to align with the “bearish tomorrow” request.

5. One-Day Predicted Return: max: -0.5

   • Purpose: Focus on stocks with a model‑predicted negative return for the next day (≤ -0.5%).
   • Rationale:
     • A negative expected return is a direct quantitative expression of “bearish tomorrow.”
     • Combining this with the low rise probability gives both a directional view (down) and confidence level (less chance of going up).

Why Results Match “Stocks That Are Bearish Tomorrow”

• The trend filters (PriceBelowMA20, negative 1‑week performance) ensure the stock is already in a short-term down/weak phase.
• The momentum filter (moderate RSI) avoids the extremes that are more prone to sudden reversals against the bearish view.
• The predictive filters (low one-day rise probability and negative one-day predicted return) explicitly bias the list toward names the model expects to be weak or down tomorrow.

Together, these filters don’t guarantee a bearish move, but they systematically stack the odds toward finding stocks with technical and model-based indications of likely short-term weakness.