Stocks likely to go up 2% tomorrow morning

Important Note on Predicting Moves

It isn’t possible to guarantee that any stock will rise by 2% “tomorrow morning” (or on any specific day). What we can do is use historical data and models to find stocks that have a higher statistical probability of a ≥2% rise over the next trading day. The filters below are built with that goal in mind.

Screening Filters

1. Market Cap ≥ $2,000,000,000

   • Purpose: Focus on mid- to large-cap companies.
   • Rationale:
     • Larger companies tend to have more stable trading patterns and less manipulation compared to micro-caps.
     • For short-term probability models (like “likely to rise tomorrow”), using more established firms generally makes the signals more reliable and less noisy.

2. Monthly Average Dollar Volume ≥ $500,000

   • Purpose: Ensure adequate liquidity.
   • Rationale:
     • High dollar volume means the stock trades enough value each day that you can usually enter/exit positions close to the quoted price.
     • Illiquid stocks can have large, random price jumps that are not predictable and can distort the model’s estimates.
     • By filtering for minimum liquidity, we focus on stocks where a 2% move is more likely to be meaningful and tradable.

3. Moving Average Relationship: PriceAboveMA20

   • Purpose: Select stocks already in a short-term uptrend.
   • Rationale:
     • The 20-day moving average is a common short-term trend gauge.
     • When the current price is above the 20-day MA, it indicates positive momentum and buying interest in the recent past.
     • Stocks in an existing uptrend have historically had a higher chance of continuing upward in the short term, which aligns with your desire for a near-term 2% rise.

4. One-Day Rise Probability ≥ 70%

   • Purpose: Focus on stocks with a relatively high model-based probability of rising tomorrow.
   • Rationale:
     • This filter uses a predictive model (based on historical patterns, volatility, momentum, etc.) to estimate the probability that the stock’s price will be higher on the next trading day.
     • A 70% threshold means we only keep stocks where the model believes they are significantly more likely to go up than down tomorrow.
     • This directly addresses your request for stocks that are “likely to increase.”

5. One-Day Predicted Return ≥ 2%

   • Purpose: Ensure the magnitude of the predicted move meets your 2% target.
   • Rationale:
     • Even if a stock is likely to rise, the expected move might be small (e.g., 0.5%).
     • By requiring a predicted next-day return of at least +2%, we filter for names where the model not only expects an increase, but expects it to be large enough to meet your specified threshold.
     • This is the most direct quantitative translation of “increase by 2% tomorrow.”

Why Results Match Your Request

• The probability filter (≥70%) targets stocks that models consider more likely than not to rise on the next trading day.
• The predicted return filter (≥2%) aligns with your specific desired move size (≥2% gain).
• The trend filter (PriceAboveMA20) biases the list toward stocks already in short-term uptrends, increasing the chance of follow‑through tomorrow.
• The market cap and liquidity filters ensure the signals are more reliable and the stocks are practical to trade, rather than thinly traded or highly speculative names.

Together, these filters don’t guarantee a 2% gain tomorrow morning, but they systematically narrow the universe to stocks with historically and statistically higher odds of delivering at least that kind of move over the next trading day.