Stocks likely to gap up tomorrow?

Screening Filters

1. Price: min $5, max $150

   • Purpose: Focus on reasonably priced, actively traded stocks and avoid ultra-low-priced “penny stocks” and very high-priced, thinly traded names.
   • Rationale:
     • Stocks under $5 often have extreme volatility, manipulation risk, and unreliable gap patterns.
     • Extremely high-priced stocks can have wide spreads and low liquidity, making gaps less tradable.
     • The $5–$150 range typically captures more established, actively traded stocks where gap moves are more likely to reflect real information (news, earnings, guidance) rather than noise.

2. Monthly average dollar volume: min $1,000,000

   • Purpose: Ensure sufficient liquidity so any gap up is tradable and driven by real institutional activity.
   • Rationale:
     • Dollar volume (price × volume) is a good proxy for how much money flows through a stock.
     • A $1M+ daily average helps filter out illiquid names where small orders can cause artificial gaps.
     • For your use case—trying to catch a gap up tomorrow—you want names where pre-market and open gaps are more likely to be caused by genuine demand.

3. News driver: Positive

   • Purpose: Capture stocks with recent positive catalysts that could trigger a gap up at the next open.
   • Rationale:
     • Gap ups are very often news-driven: earnings beats, raised guidance, upgrades, product approvals, M&A, strong sector data, etc.
     • By filtering to Positive news, we narrow the universe to those with a plausible reason for buyers to aggressively reprice the stock higher overnight or at the open.

4. One-day rise probability: min 65%

   • Purpose: Use a quantitative signal to emphasize stocks with a statistically higher probability of rising tomorrow.
   • Rationale:
     • “Likely to gap up” is inherently a probability question.
     • A threshold like ≥ 65% probability of a one-day rise focuses on names where the model’s historical patterns (price action, volatility, flows, etc.) suggest odds are meaningfully tilted to the upside.
     • This doesn’t guarantee a gap, but it prioritizes setups where a next-day upward move is statistically more common.

5. One-day predicted return: min +2%

   • Purpose: Filter for stocks where the expected move is large enough to plausibly qualify as a “gap up,” not just a tiny uptick.
   • Rationale:
     • Many stocks might have a >50% chance of rising but only by 0.3–0.5%, which wouldn’t be considered a meaningful gap.
     • Requiring an expected one-day return of at least +2% focuses on stocks where the modeled move size is substantial enough to likely be visible as a gap relative to the prior close.

Why Results Match Your Question

• The screen looks for liquid, tradeable stocks (price & dollar volume filters) so any gap is meaningful and actionable.
• It focuses on clear positive catalysts (positive news) that historically drive gap-up behavior.
• It applies quantitative odds (≥65% rise probability) to align with “likely to gap up,” emphasizing higher-probability setups.
• It enforces a minimum expected move size (+2% next day) so the candidates are not just slightly bullish, but have room for a noticeable gap.

Together, these filters narrow the universe to stocks that are both plausibly and meaningfully likely to gap up into tomorrow’s session, based on news, liquidity, and modeled probabilities.