Should I Buy crypto right now

Context

No screen can tell you with certainty whether you should buy crypto “right now.” What these filters do is narrow the universe to larger, liquid cryptocurrencies with healthier technical and statistical profiles that may be more suitable for near‑term entry decisions.

Screening Filters

1. Market cap ≥ $1,000,000,000

   • Purpose: Focus on large, established cryptocurrencies.
   • Rationale: Bigger market cap projects tend to be less prone to manipulation, rug pulls, and extreme illiquidity than tiny tokens. For a timing question like “should I buy now,” it makes sense to first restrict to assets with more stable market structures and better information availability.

2. 24h turnover ≥ $20,000,000

   • Purpose: Ensure high trading liquidity.
   • Rationale: If you’re thinking about entering “right now,” you need to be confident you can also exit without huge slippage. A turnover (trading volume) threshold filters out dead or thinly traded coins where the price you see might not be the price you actually get.

3. RSI category: moderate / overbought / oversold

   • Purpose: Include only assets with a clear, classifiable momentum state.
   • Rationale: Your timing question is inherently about short‑term technical conditions. Using RSI categories allows us to distinguish between:
     • Moderate: neither stretched up nor down.
     • Overbought: strong upside momentum but potentially near a short‑term top.
     • Oversold: negative momentum but potentially near a short‑term bottom.
       Looking across these states helps frame whether “now” is late, early, or neutral in the recent move.

4. Technical indicator constraint: 25 ≤ RSI_14 ≤ 75

   • Purpose: Avoid the most extreme momentum conditions.
   • Rationale: Very low RSI (e.g., < 25) can indicate panic selling or structurally broken names; very high RSI (> 75) can indicate blow‑off moves at high risk of reversal. Keeping RSI between 25 and 75 focuses on assets that are active and trending but not at the most extreme, unstable points. This is more appropriate for evaluating a reasonable entry rather than gambling on extremes.

5. 1‑month price change between −30% and +200%

   • Purpose: Filter for coins that have moved meaningfully, but not in an absurd or catastrophic way.
   • Rationale:
     • Excluding drops worse than −30% avoids many coins in potential free‑fall or with serious fundamental news risk.
     • Capping gains at +200% removes many parabolic spikes that often revert sharply.
       For a “buy now?” decision, this helps you avoid the most distressed and the most euphoric profiles.

6. Predicted 1‑month rise probability ≥ 50%

   • Purpose: Include only coins where the model assigns at least a “better than coin‑flip” chance of being higher a month from now.
   • Rationale: Since you’re asking about timing, we incorporate a probabilistic forward‑looking signal. While this is not a guarantee, it biases the list toward setups where data‑driven models see slightly favorable odds over the next month.

7. Predicted 1‑month return ≥ 0%

   • Purpose: Exclude coins with a negative expected return in the next month.
   • Rationale: Even if a coin could rise with >50% probability, its expected return might still be negative (if downside is larger than upside). Requiring non‑negative expected return aligns the screen with your implicit goal: if you buy now, the balance of outcomes over the next month should at least not be skewed against you.

Why These Results Match Your Question

• Your question is about timing and near‑term outlook for buying crypto. The screen addresses this by:
  • Using momentum/RSI filters to capture the current technical state.
  • Using 1‑month probability and expected return to approximate the short‑term risk‑reward.
• It narrows the universe to larger, liquid, actively traded coins, which are more appropriate for most investors and more reliably analyzed.
• It avoids coins in extreme euphoric spikes or severe collapses, where “should I buy now?” is most likely to be a gamble rather than an informed decision.