Waste Management Inc (WM) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Waste Management Inc (WM) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/28 05:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 6.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.96 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast suggests a likely Beat, supported by strong buyback plans, dividend hikes, and operational efficiency improvements.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Drivers:
- Accelerated Share Buybacks & Dividend Hike:
WM announced a $3B share repurchase plan and a ** 14.5% dividend increase**, signaling confidence in strong free cash flow generation. Buybacks alone are projected to reduce shares outstanding, directly boosting EPS.
UBS and Goldman Sachs highlighted WM’s capital return potential, with UBS citing a ** 2.5x increase in shareholder returns** due to buybacks.
- Margin Expansion Catalysts:
- Wells Fargo and Bernstein noted improvements in price/cost spreads and RNG/recycling profitability starting in
- These projects are expected to drive incremental EBITDA margins.
- Collection/Disposal Margins: Analysts anticipate operational efficiency gains (e.g., reduced turnover costs, pricing power) to sustain margin expansion.
- Offsetting Risks:
Stericycle Acquisition Headwinds: Temporary drags (e.g., integration costs, commodity price volatility) are acknowledged, but management reaffirmed long-term EBITDA targets.
Healthcare Solutions: Short-term revenue softness is offset by structural tailwinds (e.g., regulatory-driven demand).
Consensus Context:
- High Expectations: The stock’s ** 12.4% outperformance** versus the S&P 500 suggests elevated expectations. EPS estimates rose ** 0.95%** over 3 months, while revenue estimates dipped slightly (- 0.05%).
- Fact Data Outweighs Consensus: Strong cash flow visibility (buybacks, dividends) and margin catalysts outweigh consensus’s muted revenue outlook.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
Directional Play:
- Buy Stock: High probability of Beat/Strong Beat (75% combined). Dividend hike and buybacks provide downside cushion.
- Options: Buy $230–235 call spreads (expiring post-earnings) to capitalize on upside while limiting premium risk.
Hedging:
- Pair with S&P 500 put options to hedge against broader market volatility (S&P has lagged WM YTD).
Catalyst Watch:
- Monitor commodity prices (recycling margins) and Stericycle updates during the earnings call.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
WM Transcript
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial health with positive projections for free cash flow and margin improvements. The Q&A session reveals confidence in Healthcare Solutions and sustainability investments, with positive outlooks for 2026. Despite some uncertainties for 2027, the overall sentiment is optimistic, supported by successful synergy captures and expansion plans. The strong focus on technology and automation further enhances the positive outlook, suggesting a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The company demonstrated strong financial performance with record EBITDA margins and improved turnover rates. Despite challenges in recycling and specific plant closures, the overall outlook is positive, with optimistic guidance on free cash flow and margin improvements. The Q&A section revealed confidence in meeting sustainability targets and strategic growth in Healthcare Solutions. The market's focus on strategic investments and solid waste M&A, along with robust shareholder returns, supports a positive sentiment.
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with strong financial performance, improved margins, and optimistic guidance. Operating EBITDA and free cash flow have increased, and margin expansion is expected in the latter half of the year. The Q&A highlights positive trends in volume and synergies from the Healthcare Solutions acquisition. Despite some management ambiguity, the overall outlook remains favorable, with strong earnings and guidance likely to boost the stock price.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance, with revenue growth across all lines, improved operating margins, and strategic acquisitions like Stericycle contributing positively. Although there are minor concerns, such as decreased operating cash flow and paused share buybacks, the overall sentiment is positive due to optimistic guidance, expected EBITDA growth, and resilience in key business areas. The Q&A section supports this with management's confidence in synergy capture and margin improvements, despite some market challenges. Thus, a positive sentiment is justified for short-term stock price movement.
WM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Waste Management Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Waste Management Inc (WM) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 28, 2026, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Waste Management Inc FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 6.00B in revenue and an EPS of 2.00 for Waste Management Inc's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Waste Management Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forWaste Management Inc's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 28, 2026. Waste Management Inc The earnings forecast suggests a likely Beat, supported by strong buyback plans, dividend hikes, and operational efficiency improvements.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade WM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 28, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Waste Management Inc FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
