Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/27 05:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 4.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.30 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast for TXN indicates a likely miss due to delayed revenue recognition from new product launches, cyclical headwinds in key markets, and persistent margin pressures.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Factors from Fact Data:
- Mixed Product Launch Impact: TXN’s new automotive semiconductors (TDA5 SoC, AWR2188 radar) position it for long-term growth in autonomous vehicles, but these launches occurred close to the end of Q4 (Jan 5, 2026) and are unlikely to materially impact FY2025Q4 revenue. Automotive design cycles are lengthy, delaying revenue recognition.
- Tariff Relief with Limited Near-Term Benefit: The delayed tariffs on Chinese chips (Dec 2025) reduce near-term pricing pressures, but TXN’s exposure to cyclical industrial/automotive markets (slated for a “gradual recovery” per Goldman Sachs) limits upside. Consensus already reflects stable margins (+ 0.003% revenue estimate revision).
- Margin Pressures Persist: While China’s lifted export restrictions on gallium/germanium (Nov 2025) could lower material costs, TXN’s lack of cost-cutting initiatives and rising operating expenses (highlighted in prior quarters) offset potential gross margin improvements.
- Execution Concerns: Goldman Sachs’ double downgrade to Sell cites “lackluster execution” and weaker leverage to cyclical upswings vs. peers. Analyst consensus (Hold/Underperform) reflects skepticism about TXN’s ability to outperform in analog semiconductors amid AI-driven demand for digital/memory chips.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short Stock/Options: Buy Jan 2026 $175 puts to capitalize on downside from execution risks and cyclical headwinds.
- Pairs Trade: Short TXN vs. long peers with AI/digital exposure (e.g., NVDA, MRVL) to hedge sector cyclicality.
- Avoid Long Positions: High expectations (10.85% stock outperformance vs. S&P 500) amplify downside risk if margins/revenue disappoint.
Rationale: TXN’s reliance on slow-recovering industrial/auto markets and lack of near-term catalysts outweigh tariff relief benefits. Analyst downgrades and muted EPS revisions signal low confidence in upside surprises.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
TXN Transcript
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate a generally positive outlook. The company reported strong free cash flow growth, increased dividends, and stock repurchases. Q1 guidance is above seasonal expectations, driven by industrial market recovery and data center strength. Despite some caution about sustainability in China and the industrial market, overall sentiment is positive with strong financial metrics and optimistic guidance.
The earnings call reveals a stable quarter with mixed signals. Strong automotive and data center growth offsets slowing industrial growth. EPS guidance is weak, but restructuring and strategic R&D investments suggest long-term potential. The Q&A highlights management's reluctance to give detailed guidance, raising uncertainty. Overall, the stock is likely to remain neutral, with no significant positive or negative catalysts.
TXN Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Texas Instruments Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 27, 2026, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Texas Instruments Inc FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 4.00B in revenue and an EPS of 1.00 for Texas Instruments Inc's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Texas Instruments Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forTexas Instruments Inc's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 27, 2026. Texas Instruments Inc The earnings forecast for TXN indicates a likely miss due to delayed revenue recognition from new product launches, cyclical headwinds in key markets, and persistent margin pressures.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade TXN Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 27, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Texas Instruments Inc FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
