Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/15 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 32.63B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.82 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
TSMC is predicted to strongly beat earnings expectations driven by robust AI demand and strategic capacity expansions.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Fact Data strongly supports TSMC’s ability to exceed consensus expectations on revenue growth, margins, and EPS due to:
- AI-Driven Demand Surge:
Nvidia (NVDA) has requested TSMC to ramp up production of H200 AI chips to meet orders exceeding 2M units for 2026 (vs. 700K inventory). This directly ties to TSMC’s advanced node revenue (3nm/5nm), which accounts for ~76% of total revenue.
Goldman Sachs highlights "exponential growth" in AI token consumption, driving multi-year demand for TSMC’s advanced packaging (CoWoS). Bernstein forecasts 23% YoY revenue growth in
2026. 2. Strategic Capacity Expansion:
Bernstein notes TSMC’s CoWoS capacity expansion to 125K wafers/month by 2026, critical for supporting Nvidia’s Blackwell/Rubin GPUs.
U.S. export license approval for TSMC Nanjing ensures uninterrupted supply chain operations, supporting high utilization rates.
- Margin Improvement Catalysts:
Higher ASPs from advanced nodes (3nm/5nm) and improved operational efficiency from scale (Citi cites "cost improvement efforts").
Reduced FX risk: ~75% of TSMC’s revenue is USD-denominated, insulating EPS from TWD volatility.
- Competitive Moats:
- Intel’s (INTC) struggles (2+ years behind TSMC in foundry tech) and Apple’s (AAPL) continued reliance on TSMC for AI chips (per Intel partnership rumors) solidify TSMC’s dominance.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Stock: Buy TSM ahead of earnings.
- Options:
- Bull Call Spread: Buy Jan 2026 $325 calls / Sell $340 calls (capitalize on upside with capped risk).
- IV Play: Sell Jan 2026 $300 puts (implied volatility is low at 33.7%, below 52-week median).
Risks: Geopolitical tensions (China-Taiwan), Intel foundry progress.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
TSM Transcript
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with record revenue growth, robust cash flow, and optimistic guidance for AI demand. Despite some concerns on margin dilution and vague responses in the Q&A, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong demand in AI and advanced technologies, coupled with a solid shareholder return plan. The optimistic guidance for AI and technology advancements outweigh potential risks, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance and optimistic guidance, with a 13% sequential revenue increase and high gross margins. The Q&A section highlights robust AI demand, strategic investments, and expansion plans, despite some uncertainties. These factors, along with a stable shareholder return strategy, suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call reflects mixed signals: strong AI demand and a slight EPS beat are positive, but revenue decline and margin pressure due to external factors (earthquake, overseas expansion) are concerning. Q&A highlighted demand strength but also management's evasiveness on certain risks. No explicit Q2 guidance was given, which can cause uncertainty. The absence of a share repurchase plan and increased inventory days further contribute to a neutral outlook. Without market cap data, a neutral prediction is prudent, considering both positive and negative elements.
The earnings call highlighted strong AI demand and a significant investment plan, but these were offset by a decline in revenue and margins, and vague management responses in the Q&A. The guidance for Q1 2025 indicates a revenue decline, and there was no new partnership announcement or shareholder return plan adjustment. The market is likely to remain cautious, resulting in a neutral stock price movement.
TSM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 15, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 32.63B in revenue and an EPS of 2.82 for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Strong Beat forTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 15, 2026. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd TSMC is predicted to strongly beat earnings expectations driven by robust AI demand and strategic capacity expansions.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade TSM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 15, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
