Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 08/28 06:00:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 13.71B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.46 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The forecast indicates a high likelihood of TD achieving an earnings beat driven by improved NIM, reduced PCL, and controlled expense growth.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Fact Data Analysis for Key Metrics:
- Net Interest Margin (NIM) Improvement:
- Barclays analysts highlighted expectations of higher net interest income in Q3 due to improved sequential earnings, driven by favorable interest rate dynamics and loan portfolio performance. This directly supports a potential NIM beat against consensus.
- Provision for Credit Losses (PCL) Reduction:
- Analysts anticipate a decline in losses on performing loans, which aligns with stabilizing credit quality and lower risk provisions. This signals a potential PCL miss (positive for earnings).
- Operational Efficiency (Expense Growth Control):
- The Fiserv partnership (merchant processing business transition) is likely to reduce operational costs in TD’s Canadian segment, supporting slower expense growth relative to revenue.
- Revenue Growth Neutrality:
While Wealth Management revenue growth lacks direct catalysts in the Fact Data, the Fiserv deal’s short-term impact on revenue is unclear. However, stable loan growth and NIM expansion could offset potential weakness here.
Neutral Factors:The new board chair appointment (John B. MacIntyre) introduces leadership stability but lacks immediate financial implications.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Stock: Long TD ahead of earnings, given undervaluation relative to peers (8.1% YTD vs. S&P 500’s 8.46%) and EPS upside potential.
- Options: Buy August $75 calls (post-earnings expiry) to capitalize on a Beat-driven rally. Hedge with protective puts at $70.
- Caution: Monitor macro risks (Canadian mortgage renewals, tariffs) flagged by Barclays, which could pressure sentiment despite a Beat.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
TD Transcript
The earnings call reflects a stable financial performance with positive elements like share buybacks and strong credit performance. However, there are concerns about weaker insurance results, slight declines in U.S. deposit growth, and unclear guidance on asset cap relief. The Q&A session did not reveal significant negative sentiment but highlighted uncertainties in regulatory timelines. Overall, the mix of positive and negative factors, along with stable but not exceptional financial metrics, suggests a neutral stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call shows a positive outlook with record assets in wealth management, strong loan and deposit growth, and a commitment to an $8 billion buyback program. Despite some headwinds in expenses and AML remediation, the bank's strategic initiatives like digital investments and balance sheet restructuring are likely to drive growth. The Q&A session highlights management's confidence in revenue growth and disciplined expense management, which supports a positive sentiment. While there are some uncertainties, the overall positive developments suggest a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
TD Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Toronto-Dominion Bank FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onAug 28, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Toronto-Dominion Bank FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 13.71B in revenue and an EPS of 1.46 for Toronto-Dominion Bank's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Toronto-Dominion Bank FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forToronto-Dominion Bank's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Aug 28, 2025. Toronto-Dominion Bank The forecast indicates a high likelihood of TD achieving an earnings beat driven by improved NIM, reduced PCL, and controlled expense growth.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade TD Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theAug 28, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Toronto-Dominion Bank FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
