Microsoft Corp (MSFT) FY2026Q2 Earning Prediction
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) is set to release its FY2026Q2 earnings performance on 01/28 05:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 80.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 3.88 for the FY2026Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast anticipates a "Beat" scenario driven by Azure's growth, AI adoption, and robust commercial bookings.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Fact Data Analysis:
- Azure Growth Drivers:
UBS highlighted the ramp of Microsoft’s Fairwater AI data centers (Atlanta/Wisconsin) as a near-term catalyst for Azure growth, with capacity coming online ahead of earnings.
Citi expects an Azure beat despite weaker non-cloud segments, supported by GPU/CPU demand stability (TD Cowen).
Morgan Stanley noted Microsoft’s expanded partnership with Anthropic, reinforcing Azure’s AI leadership.
- Commercial Bookings Momentum:
- Hyperscaler deals like the $ 9.7B Iren contract (renewable-powered AI data centers) and $17B Microsoft Cloud agreement with Nebius signal strong long-term revenue visibility.
- AI Adoption & Monetization:
Mizuho’s checks indicate “very strong” AI adoption, with Copilot and OpenAI integrations driving enterprise demand.
Jefferies emphasized GPT- 5.2’s enterprise potential, benefiting Microsoft as OpenAI’s cloud partner.
- Margin Resilience:
Mizuho flagged moderated budget flush activity, but Microsoft’s vertical integration (e.g., in-house MAIA chips via Marvell partnerships) could offset AI infrastructure costs.
Baird cited scalability in cloud/AI, supporting margin stability despite Rothschild’s capex concerns.
Key Risks:PC segment weakness (Citi) and slower non-Azure growth.
Rothschild’s downgrade highlights hyperscaler economics risks, but consensus leans toward Azure execution.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Options: Long $460-$470 call spreads for leverage on Beat/Strong Beat scenarios.
- Equity: Accumulate shares pre-earnings; AI/cloud leadership justifies premium valuation.
- Hedges: Short-dated puts on S&P 500 (IXIC) to hedge macro risk if Azure decelerates.
Rationale: Azure’s AI-driven momentum and hyperscaler deals outweigh cyclical PC risks. Consensus estimates (0.015% revenue revision) are conservative given GPU capacity additions and OpenAI monetization.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
MSFT Transcript
The earnings report reveals strong financial performance with significant revenue and EPS growth, driven by demand across various segments. Despite a decline in free cash flow, commercial bookings surged, indicating robust future growth. The Q&A highlighted confidence in CapEx investments and AI-centric hardware, though some concerns about ROI and backlog durability were not fully addressed. Overall, the positive financial metrics and optimistic guidance, especially in AI and cloud services, suggest a likely stock price increase, despite some investor concerns.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with significant growth in free cash flow, commercial bookings, and cloud services revenue. Despite a decline in gaming revenue and cloud gross margin, the company maintains optimistic guidance for FY '26 with a focus on AI and cloud. The Q&A session addressed concerns about risks and investments, with management expressing confidence in their strategic positioning. The positive aspects, such as AI-driven growth and strategic partnerships, outweigh the negatives, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
MSFT Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Microsoft Corp FY2026Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q2 earnings report onJan 28, 2026, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Microsoft Corp FY2026Q2 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 80.00B in revenue and an EPS of 4.00 for Microsoft Corp's FY2026Q2.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Microsoft Corp FY2026Q2 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forMicrosoft Corp's FY2026Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 28, 2026. Microsoft Corp The earnings forecast anticipates a "Beat" scenario driven by Azure's growth, AI adoption, and robust commercial bookings.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade MSFT Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 28, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Microsoft Corp FY2026Q2?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
