MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/29 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 7.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 9.43 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast predicts a Beat, driven by strong revenue and credit portfolio growth, but tempered by margin pressures.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Analysis:
- Revenue Growth (30%+):
Positive Drivers: Accelerated credit portfolio expansion (91%+ target), increased free shipping investments, and sales/marketing initiatives suggest sustained user acquisition and transaction volume growth. Citi highlights strong growth in Brazil/Mexico, core markets.
Negative Risks: Competitive pressure from Amazon’s $25M Rappi investment could slow market share gains in Colombia, but limited near-term impact given MELI’s dominance in Brazil/Mexico.
Conclusion: Revenue likely meets or slightly exceeds 30% growth, driven by credit/fintech adoption and regional strength.
- Income from Operations ($825M+):
Margin Headwinds: EBIT margin compressed by 70bps QoQ (Cantor Fitzgerald) due to free shipping costs, lower take rates, and first-party mix shift. Susquehanna notes "investment mode" with rising expenses.
Offsetting Factors: Fixed-cost leverage from scale (Cantor) and improving logistics efficiency.
Conclusion: Likely miss due to temporary margin pressures, though long-term investments remain strategic.
- Advertising Revenue Growth (38%+):
MAU Growth: Monthly Active Users (MAU) likely surpass 68M (accelerated credit/free shipping driving engagement).
Monetization: Higher user base supports ad revenue, but competition and macro uncertainty in Argentina may temper growth.
Conclusion: Narrow beat (38%-40%) with user growth offsetting macro risks.
- Credit Portfolio Growth (91%+):
Growth Drivers: Explicit mentions of "accelerated rollout of credit" (Susquehanna) and fintech focus.
Conclusion: Strong beat as credit expansion aligns with strategic priorities.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Options Play: Buy bull call spreads (e.g., long $2,200/$2,300 calls expiring Nov 2025) to capitalize on potential post-earnings rebound.
- Hedge: Pair with short puts to offset volatility risk from Argentina macro uncertainty.
- Stock: Accumulate on weakness pre-earnings; consensus expectations are low (stock underperformed S&P 500 by 18% since last earnings).
Rationale: Fact data supports revenue/user growth, but margin risks create asymmetric upside if results exceed depressed expectations.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
MELI Transcript
The earnings call summary reveals strong revenue growth, successful e-commerce expansion, and positive developments in FinTech and credit card businesses. Despite some uncertainties in Argentina and a lack of specific guidance, overall financial health and strategic moves indicate a positive outlook. The Q&A section highlights operational efficiencies and profitability in older credit card cohorts, further supporting a positive sentiment. The company's strategic investments and market share gains in Brazil, alongside ongoing AI initiatives, add to the optimism. These factors suggest a likely positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call and Q&A highlight strong financial performance, with record growth in monthly active users and credit portfolios. The reduction in seller fees and free shipping strategy in Brazil have positively impacted engagement and GMV growth. AI usage in marketing and strong advertising revenue growth further boost sentiment. Despite stable NPLs, improved early delinquencies and profitability in credit portfolios are positive signs. While management was non-committal about expanding the shipping strategy, overall sentiment remains positive, suggesting a stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with rapid revenue and user growth, improved credit portfolio, and optimistic guidance. Despite competitive pressures and regulatory challenges, the company is well-positioned for long-term growth, especially in Argentina. The Q&A section reveals positive sentiment towards market share gains and margin sustainability. However, the lack of a share buyback program and unclear responses on some financial drivers slightly temper enthusiasm. Overall, the positive momentum and strategic investments suggest a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8% in the short term.
MELI Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the MercadoLibre Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 29, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for MercadoLibre Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 7.00B in revenue and an EPS of 9.00 for MercadoLibre Inc's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for MercadoLibre Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forMercadoLibre Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 29, 2025. MercadoLibre Inc The earnings forecast predicts a Beat, driven by strong revenue and credit portfolio growth, but tempered by margin pressures.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade MELI Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 29, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like MercadoLibre Inc FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
