Moody's Corp (MCO) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction

10/22 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Moody's Corp (MCO) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/22 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 1.95B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 3.70 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

1.95B

2.01B

+3.04%

EPSBEAT

3.70

3.92

+5.95%

Slide

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q3

Earnings Date: Oct 22, 2025

Moody's is projected to surpass earnings expectations due to strong issuance activity and growth in its analytics segment, despite some market headwinds.

Beat

Last 0 quarters:

4 beats1 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

25%

+5-7%

Issuance growth surpasses 20% YoY; Analytics growth accelerates.

Beat

50%

+2-4%

Issuance meets elevated Q3 expectations; margins improve modestly.

Neutral

15%

Flat

MIS revenue declines offset Analytics growth; guidance held flat.

Miss

-3-5%

Issuance slows unexpectedly; client spending tightens in Analytics.

Strong Miss

-7-10%

Macro downturn crushes issuance; KYC/Insurance ARR contracts.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Beat

Strong issuance activity (leveraged finance +17%) and Analytics growth via Decision Solutions offset Learning Solutions divestiture.

EPS

Beat

Higher-margin Ratings revenue mix and cost discipline from divestitures support margin expansion.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Key Fact Data Analysis:

Debt Issuance Momentum:

Multiple analysts (Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Mizuho) highlight strong issuance activity in Q3, particularly in high-yield bonds and leveraged loans, which directly drives Moody’s Ratings (MIS) segment (~55% of revenue). This aligns with the market’s key concern about revenue growth exceeding expectations.
JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley suggest Moody’s could raise full-year guidance, indicating outperformance in core issuance-driven metrics.

Moody’s Analytics Growth:

Moody’s Analytics (~45% of revenue) benefits from Decision Solutions growth and recent acquisitions (e.g., MERIS acquisition strengthens Middle East presence). This supports sustained revenue growth despite BMO Capital’s note on client "tightening purchasing patterns."

Margin Expansion Potential:

Cost discipline (noted in prior quarters) and divestiture of non-core assets (Learning Solutions sale to Fitch) could amplify operating margin improvements, a critical metric for profitability.

Mixed Signals:

BMO Capital’s caution on MIS revenue decline (low-single-digit YoY) and FactSet’s mention of rising AI competition for Analytics are headwinds but insufficient to offset issuance tailwinds.

Consensus Context:

Despite upward estimate revisions (revenue + 1.4%, EPS + 1.8%), the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by - 12.7% since last earnings (vs. S&P + 4.05%), implying low expectations priced in. Fact data suggests upside potential relative to consensus.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Pre-Earnings Play:

Long Stock/Options: Buy shares or OCT 2025 $480 calls. The stock’s underperformance creates asymmetry for a beat-driven rebound.
Pairs Trade: Long MCO vs. S&P Global (SPGI), as Moody’s has higher leverage to leveraged finance issuance.

Post-Earnings Hedge:

Sell NOV 2025 $450 puts to capitalize on downside protection demand if guidance is raised.

Rationale:

Consensus underestimates Q3 issuance momentum and margin upside. The stock’s valuation (~30x P/E) is reasonable if guidance is revised upward.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

MCO Transcript

Moody's Corporation (MCO) Presents at J.P. Morgan 2025 Ultimate Services Investor Conference Transcript

Neutral11-18

Moody's Corporation (MCO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-22

The earnings call reveals several positive aspects: strategic partnerships with major companies, strong private credit growth, and GenAI adoption. Moody's Analytics is performing well, with high single-digit growth expected. While there are concerns about macroeconomic uncertainties, the company has maintained strong financial metrics and efficiency savings. The Q&A section also highlighted constructive issuance outlook and strong demand for banking solutions. Despite some vague responses, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a likely stock price increase.

Moody's Corporation (MCO) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive7-23

Moody's reported record revenue growth, improved margins, and a successful AI strategy, alongside a promising partnership with MSCI. Despite some challenges in Banking ARR and slower MA growth, the overall sentiment from the earnings call is positive. The Q&A section highlighted strong private credit growth and effective cost management. The guidance for revenue, operating margin, and EPS remains optimistic, supported by robust free cash flow and a significant share repurchase plan. These factors suggest a likely positive stock price movement in the short term.

Moody’s at Barclays Americas Conference: Strategic Focus on Growth Amid Challenges

Neutral5-7

MCO Slides

Moody's Q2 2025 slides: revenue growth continues as EPS guidance narrows upward

2025-07-23

Moody's Q3 2025 slides: Record $2B quarterly revenue drives raised guidance

2025-10-22

MCO Report

MOODYS CORP /DE/ 10-Q

10-Q

2024-07-24

MOODYS CORP /DE/ 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-02

MOODYS CORP /DE/ 10-K

10-K

2024-02-14

MOODYS CORP /DE/ 10-Q

10-Q

2023-10-26

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Moody's Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Moody's Corp (MCO) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 22, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Moody's Corp FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 1.95B in revenue and an EPS of 3.70 for Moody's Corp's FY2025Q3.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Moody's Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forMoody's Corp's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 22, 2025. Moody's Corp Moody's is projected to surpass earnings expectations due to strong issuance activity and growth in its analytics segment, despite some market headwinds.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade MCO Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 22, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Moody's Corp FY2025Q3?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!