Marriott International Inc (MAR) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
Marriott International Inc (MAR) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 11/04 07:00:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 6.46B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.41 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast indicates a neutral outlook due to mixed RevPAR trends and lack of decisive operational catalysts.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Fact Data Analysis
- RevPAR Growth Uncertainty:
- Negative Signals: Barclays and Bernstein note "soft" Q3 sales expectations and "disappointing" U.S. RevPAR trends in
- RevPAR is the most critical driver for lodging stocks, and recent industry data suggests stabilization but not meaningful acceleration.
- Positive Signals: Argus highlights Marriott’s fee-based business strength and corporate travel recovery potential. The Series by Marriott brand debut in the U.S. could drive incremental demand long-term, but conversion timelines (1 year) limit near-term impact.
- Fee Revenue Risks:
Headwinds: IMF growth depends on international performance (weak FX trends likely pressured results) and U.S./Canada renovation completion. No explicit data confirms these renovations are fully operational.
Mitigators: Share buybacks (+25M shares) and dividend hikes signal confidence, but these are capital allocation decisions, not operational beats.
- Cost Management:
- Adjusted EBITDA growth depends on cost controls. Analysts do not cite material operational efficiency improvements, while RevPAR softness may compress margins.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Neutral Outlook Play: Sell short-dated straddles (options expiry post-earnings) to capitalize on low volatility expectations (stock has lagged S&P 500 by ~9% since last earnings).
- Downside Hedge: Buy November $250 puts as protection against RevPAR-driven misses.
- Long-Term Bullish: Accumulate shares on dips below $250, given Bernstein/Argus’s long-term bullish thesis on lodging recovery.
Rationale: The lack of decisive Fact Data (e.g., RevPAR acceleration, cost-cutting wins) and mixed analyst sentiment (3 price target cuts vs. 2 raises) justify a neutral stance. Market expectations are tempered (flat stock performance vs. S&P), reducing the bar for a beat, but fundamentals lack clear catalysts.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
MAR Transcript
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, with significant growth in membership and co-brand accounts, and a healthy franchise. Investment in tech transformation and optimism for RevPAR growth, especially in international markets, are positive indicators. Despite some uncertainties in credit card negotiations and competition, the overall outlook, including strong shareholder returns and strategic expansions, suggests a positive market reaction.
The earnings call reveals a decline in key financial metrics, with EPS and sales down year-over-year, and gross margins under pressure due to tariffs and promotions. The Q&A section highlights uncertainties around the Stuart Weitzman acquisition and lack of guidance on its impact. While there are some positive signs, like improved traffic and conversion in Famous Footwear, the overall sentiment is negative due to financial declines and uncertainties, leading to a likely negative stock price reaction.
MAR Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Marriott International Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Marriott International Inc (MAR) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onNov 4, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Marriott International Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 6.46B in revenue and an EPS of 2.41 for Marriott International Inc's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Marriott International Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forMarriott International Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Nov 4, 2025. Marriott International Inc The earnings forecast indicates a neutral outlook due to mixed RevPAR trends and lack of decisive operational catalysts.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade MAR Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theNov 4, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Marriott International Inc FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
