Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction

10/21 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/21 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 18.53B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 6.33 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

18.53B

18.61B

+0.45%

EPSBEAT

6.33

6.95

+9.79%

Slide

Attend Webcast

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q3

Earnings Date: Oct 21, 2025

The prediction anticipates a beat in earnings driven by strong performance in missile contracts and stable F-35 production.

Beat

Last 0 quarters:

2 beats3 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

20%

+3-5%

Larger-than-expected F-35 deliveries + resolution of program losses.

Beat

55%

+1-3%

Missiles segment delivers 10%+ growth, EPS edges above lowered consensus.

Neutral

15%

Flat

Mixed results: Missiles beat offset by Aeronautics/program drags.

Miss

-2-4%

Classified program losses worsen, missile delays.

Strong Miss

-5-7%

Major F-35 delays + new impairments.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Beat

Missiles & Fire Control contracts (+PAC-3/JASSM volumes) and F-35 deliveries drive top-line growth.

EPS

Beat

Margin improvement from missile sales mix and buybacks outweigh lingering program losses.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Revenue Drivers (Beat):

Missiles & Fire Control Dominance: Multiple large contracts ($ 9.8B PAC-3 MSE, $ 4.29B JASSM/LRASM) and Pentagon pressure to boost missile production directly support volume growth in tactical/strike programs. This segment’s revenue is likely to exceed consensus due to accelerated deliveries.
Aeronautics Stabilization: F-35 production remains on track (190+ deliveries in 2025), and Turkey’s potential F-16/F-35 orders signal future demand. However, classified program drags may temper upside.

EPS Drivers (Beat):

Margin Mix Shift: Higher-margin missile sales offset program losses. Tax reserve adjustments and reduced impairments (vs. prior quarters) provide tailwinds.
Share Buybacks/Dividends: $2B buyback and dividend hike signal confidence in cash flow stability, supporting EPS accretion.

Risks:

Persistent program losses in Aeronautics/RMS (not fully resolved) and tariff/supply chain risks (China minerals) limit margin expansion.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Directional Play: Long stock or Oct/Nov $500-$510 calls. The stock’s 18.6% YTD rally prices in optimism, but incremental missile wins and F-35 clarity could drive short-term upside.
Hedging: Pair with puts on RTX/NOC (peers with less missile exposure) to hedge broader defense sector risks.
Post-Earnings: Sell volatility (iron condor) given elevated IV; consensus expects modest guidance due to shutdown uncertainty.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

LMT Transcript

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference 2025 Transcript

Neutral12-3

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-21

The earnings call summary and Q&A session indicate positive sentiment. Lockheed Martin reaffirmed strong financial guidance, highlighted growth in key programs like F-35 and hypersonics, and maintained a stable free cash flow outlook. The Q&A revealed increased confidence in supply chain capabilities and potential revenue upside in munitions and Golden Dome. Despite some guidance reduction due to CH-53K volumes, management anticipates recovery and growth. Overall, the company's strategic positioning and optimistic outlook suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Presents At Morgan Stanley's 13th Annual Laguna Conference Transcript

Neutral9-11

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Unknown7-22

The earnings call reveals mixed signals: positive growth in segments like Missiles and Space, but challenges in Rotary and Mission Systems. The Q&A highlights uncertainties in the Aero Classified program, with significant charges and unclear cash flow timing. Despite optimistic guidance and shareholder returns, concerns over program risks and tax liabilities dampen sentiment. The lack of market cap data prevents precise assessment, but overall, the mixed performance and uncertainties suggest a neutral stock reaction.

LMT Slides

Lockheed Martin Q2 2025 slides: Program losses drive sharp profit decline despite stable sales

2025-07-22

Lockheed Martin Q3 2025 slides: Strong performance drives guidance upgrade

2025-10-21

LMT Report

LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP 10-Q

10-Q

2024-07-23

LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP 10-Q

10-Q

2024-04-23

LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP 10-K

10-K

2024-01-23

LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP 10-Q

10-Q

2023-10-17

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 21, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 18.53B in revenue and an EPS of 6.33 for Lockheed Martin Corp's FY2025Q3.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forLockheed Martin Corp's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 21, 2025. Lockheed Martin Corp The prediction anticipates a beat in earnings driven by strong performance in missile contracts and stable F-35 production.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade LMT Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 21, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025Q3?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!