JD.com Inc (JD) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction

11/13 05:00:00

Pre-Market

JD.com Inc (JD) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 11/13 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 293.95B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.46 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

293.95B

299.06B

+1.74%

EPSBEAT

0.46

0.52

+13.04%

AI Summary

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q3

Earnings Date: Nov 13, 2025

JD's Q3 earnings are projected to beat expectations, driven by strong delivery and service revenue growth, despite some headwinds.

Beat

Last 0 quarters:

5 beats0 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

25%

+8-10%

Revenue growth >30% YoY + logistics margin expansion.

Beat

40%

+3-5%

Revenue beats (2-5% above consensus) + EPS in line.

Neutral

20%

Flat

Revenue/EPS meet consensus without surprises.

Miss

10%

-5-7%

Logistics margins disappoint + cash flow weakens.

Strong Miss

-10%+

Service revenue growth stalls + new segment losses widen.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Beat

Strong delivery growth (Mizuho/BofA) and service revenue momentum (29% YoY trend).

EPS

Neutral

Logistics investments and acquisition-related costs offset operating income gains.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

The Fact Data provides mixed but net-positive signals for JD’s Q3 earnings:

Revenue Growth Drivers:

Delivery Incentives: Mizuho’s channel checks highlight strong Q3 delivery order growth driven by increased incentives, directly supporting electronics/home appliances (23% YoY growth in Q2) and service revenue (29% YoY growth).
Service Revenue Momentum: Continued growth in marketplace and logistics services aligns with analyst revisions (BofA fine-tuning estimates upward).

Logistics Efficiency:

Operating income improvements are plausible given delivery order growth and incentives, but capacity investments (Q2 drag) may limit margin upside.

New Business Loss Reduction:

The collapse of the Sainsbury’s deal and stablecoin initiative pause could reduce cash burn, aiding cost control in new segments (food delivery, Jingxi).

Cash Flow Risks:

The Ceconomy acquisition loan and REIT plans signal cash outflows, but improved operating income (from logistics/service growth) may offset concerns.

Consensus Context: Low expectations (flat stock vs. S&P +4%, minimal EPS revisions) lower the bar for a beat. Regulatory headwinds (stablecoin halt) are not core to Q3 metrics.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Stock: Long JD shares ahead of earnings. Low expectations (underperformance vs. S&P 500) and revenue beat potential create asymmetric upside.
Options: Buy November $35 calls (OTM) to capitalize on beat-driven rally. Hedge with December $30 puts (5% allocation) for tail-risk protection.
Avoid: Short-term puts, as the risk/reward skews positive.

Key Risks: Regulatory overhang (stablecoin), cash flow strain from acquisitions.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

JD Transcript

JD.com, Inc. (JD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Unknown11-13

Despite strong revenue growth and expanding margins in JD Retail, concerns arise from declining free cash flow, reduced non-GAAP net income, and losses in JD Logistics due to investments. The Q&A reveals management's confidence in long-term strategies, but vague responses about AI investments and international expansion create uncertainties. The mixed financial results and cautious guidance suggest a neutral impact on stock price.

JD.com, Inc. (JD) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive8-14

The earnings call reflects strong financial performance, with significant revenue growth across multiple categories and improved gross margins. The Q&A section highlights strategic investments in food delivery and international expansion, promising long-term growth. Despite some concerns about widening losses in new business segments and reduced free cash flow, the company's strong market positioning, user growth, and shareholder return strategy suggest a positive stock price movement.

JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive5-14

The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with EPS and revenue exceeding expectations, improved margins, and a significant dividend increase. The Q&A session highlighted ongoing growth initiatives in food delivery and AI, despite some lack of detail. The share buyback and dividend increase are positive indicators. While free cash flow decreased, overall financial health remains robust. Given these factors, the stock is likely to see a positive movement in the short term.

JD.com (JD) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive5-13

The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with 16% revenue growth and a 43% increase in non-GAAP net profit. Despite challenges like competition and supply chain issues, JD's focus on AI, robotics, and new business areas like food delivery shows growth potential. Shareholder returns are favorable with significant buybacks and dividends. Although free cash flow decreased, liquidity remains strong. Positive sentiment from analysts and optimistic guidance suggest a positive stock price reaction, likely within the 2% to 8% range over the next two weeks.

JD Report

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the JD.com Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?

JD.com Inc (JD) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onNov 13, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for JD.com Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 293.95B in revenue and an EPS of 0.46 for JD.com Inc's FY2025Q3.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for JD.com Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forJD.com Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Nov 13, 2025. JD.com Inc JD's Q3 earnings are projected to beat expectations, driven by strong delivery and service revenue growth, despite some headwinds.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade JD Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theNov 13, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like JD.com Inc FY2025Q3?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!