Intel Corp (INTC) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction

10/23 04:00:00

After Hours

Intel Corp (INTC) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/23 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 13.14B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.02 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

13.14B

13.65B

+3.92%

EPSBEAT

0.02

0.23

+1050.00%

AI Summary

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q3

Earnings Date: Oct 23, 2025

Intel is predicted to exceed earnings expectations due to strong foundry momentum, strategic partnerships, and margin recovery.

Beat

Last 0 quarters:

5 beats0 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

20%

+10-15%

Foundry deals exceed $1B, EPS >$0.10.

Beat

45%

+3-7%

Revenue ~$13.2B, EPS ~$0.05.

Neutral

20%

Flat

Mixed execution (foundry growth offsets PC weakness).

Miss

10%

-8-12%

Foundry delays, margin pressure.

Strong Miss

-15-20%

18A process yield issues disclosed.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Beat

Foundry client wins (AI customer + Nvidia collaboration) offset PC/server uncertainty.

EPS

Beat

Absence of noncash charges, cost controls, and one-time gains from partnerships.

Gross Margin

Beat

Non-GAAP normalization (ex-charges) + higher-margin foundry revenue mix.

Foundry Rev

Neutral

Progress with 18A clients, but AMD/TSMC competition limits upside surprise.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Key Fact Data Drivers:

Foundry Momentum: Intel secured at least one AI client for its 18A process (SemiAccurate report), signaling progress in its foundry business. Analyst reports (Benchmark, Roth Capital) highlight improved AI positioning post-Nvidia partnership.
Product Catalysts: Panther Lake (18A process) and Xeon 6+ server CPU announcements demonstrate execution on next-gen tech, critical for future revenue.
Strategic Partnerships:

Nvidia’s $5B investment and collaboration on data center/PC products (direct revenue upside).
SoftBank’s $2B stake and U.S. government equity infusion ($ 8.9B) ease liquidity concerns.

Margin Tailwinds: Last quarter’s non-GAAP gross margin was dragged down by one-time charges. Fact data shows no recurrence of these charges in Q3, supporting margin recovery.
Tariff/Political Tailwinds: Trump’s proposed 1:1 chip production ratio favors Intel’s U.S.-centric manufacturing.

Market Expectations Context:

High Expectations: Stock surged 76.95% vs. S&P 500 (+ 3.66%), implying lofty optimism around foundry deals/AI.
Low Consensus EPS Estimate ($ 0.00456): Even minor operational improvements could drive outsized EPS beat.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Near-Term Bullish Plays:
- Long Calls: Buy Nov 2025 $38 calls (IV spike post-earnings likely).
- Bull Put Spread: Sell $35 put / Buy $33 put to capitalize on Beat momentum.
Hedge:
- Short Shares: Pair with long-term puts (Jan 2026 $30) to mitigate geopolitical/execution risks.
Post-Earnings Swing:
- Straddle: Given high volatility expectations, long Oct 31 expiry straddles ($36 strike).

Key Catalyst Watch:

Foundry Customer Details: Any confirmation of AI client (e.g., Meta, Amazon) for 18A.
Government Stake Clarity: Updates on U.S. equity terms (dilution risk vs. funding stability).

Risks: Over-optimism priced in (76% rally), geopolitical tensions (China dumping probe).

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

INTC Transcript

Intel Corporation (INTC) Presents at Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference Transcript

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Intel Corporation (INTC) Presents at UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 Transcript

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Intel Corporation (INTC) Presents at Global Technology, Internet, Media & Telecommunications Conference 2025 Transcript

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Intel Corporation (INTC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Unknown10-23

The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal several concerns: Intel's cautious revenue outlook, margin pressures from product transitions, supply constraints, and lack of specific guidance on key projects like Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids. Despite some positive developments in AI and partnerships, the lack of clear timelines and yield improvements, along with uncertainties in gross margins and CapEx, suggest a negative sentiment. The absence of guidance for 2026, coupled with margin and supply chain challenges, outweighs the positive aspects, leading to a predicted stock price decline of -2% to -8%.

INTC Slides

Intel Q2 2025 slides: Revenue beat overshadowed by EPS miss amid restructuring

2025-07-24

INTC Report

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Intel Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Intel Corp (INTC) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 23, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Intel Corp FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 13.14B in revenue and an EPS of 0.02 for Intel Corp's FY2025Q3.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Intel Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forIntel Corp's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 23, 2025. Intel Corp Intel is predicted to exceed earnings expectations due to strong foundry momentum, strategic partnerships, and margin recovery.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade INTC Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 23, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Intel Corp FY2025Q3?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!