International Business Machines Corp (IBM) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
International Business Machines Corp (IBM) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/28 05:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 19.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 4.33 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
IBM is expected to outperform due to strategic acquisitions, strong AI and software demand, and operational efficiencies.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Insights:
- Strategic Acquisitions & Partnerships:
IBM’s acquisition of Confluent (enterprise data streaming platform) for $11B strengthens its AI/hybrid cloud capabilities. Analysts (Stifel) highlight synergies with IBM’s AI/software portfolio and enterprise reach, likely accelerating revenue growth.
Collaborations with Datavault AI (edge AI deployment), Pearson (AI-powered education), and Riyadh Air (AI-native airline) expand high-margin software/services opportunities.
- Analyst Upgrades & AI Tailwinds:
Jefferies and RBC Capital upgraded IBM, citing enterprise AI monetization and stabilizing enterprise spending.
Melius Research emphasized IBM’s quantum computing leadership, projecting “billions in high-margin revenue” by
2029. 3. Government/Enterprise Momentum:
- Participation in the U.S. Tech Force (federal AI modernization) and DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative signals credibility in mission-critical AI/quantum projects.
- Margin Expansion:
- Cost synergies from acquisitions (Confluent) and focus on software/consulting (Oppenheimer) support EBITDA growth.
Risks:
Confluent acquisition costs may temporarily pressure FCF.
High expectations (stock up ** 6.68%** vs. S&P 500’s 1.88%) require robust execution.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Stock: Long IBM pre-earnings (upside from AI/quantum narrative).
- Options: Buy $310 calls (Jan 26 expiry) to capitalize on bullish momentum.
- Hedges: Pair with S&P 500 puts (broader market risk from geopolitical events).
Rationale: Fact data supports momentum in core segments, with acquisitions and AI partnerships undervalued relative to consensus. High institutional ownership (Tech Force, DARPA) reduces downside risk.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
IBM Transcript
IBM's earnings call reflects strong financial performance with double-digit growth in key segments, expanded profit margins, and robust free cash flow. The optimistic guidance for 2026, particularly in software and Red Hat, supports a positive sentiment. Despite some cautious guidance, the company's focus on AI and strategic partnerships suggests sustained momentum. The Q&A session provided additional confidence in IBM's growth trajectory, with analysts showing a positive reaction to IBM's strategic initiatives and growth prospects. Overall, the positive sentiment outweighs any uncertainties, indicating a likely stock price increase in the near term.
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong financial performance, with significant growth in EBITDA, operating EPS, and segment margins. Positive factors include raised free cash flow guidance, strong AI and software growth, and promising infrastructure contributions. Although consulting growth is cautious, the overall outlook is optimistic with raised guidance and strategic partnerships. The lack of detailed organic growth rates and potential M&A impacts are minor concerns. Considering these factors, the stock price is likely to experience a positive movement in the short term.
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong infrastructure and hybrid cloud growth, improved margins, and strategic AI initiatives. Although consulting revenue was flat, there is optimism in software growth and strategic partnerships. The cautious stance on guidance tempers expectations slightly, but overall, the positive performance and strategic positioning suggest a positive stock price movement.
IBM Slides
IBM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the International Business Machines Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
International Business Machines Corp (IBM) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 28, 2026, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for International Business Machines Corp FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 19.00B in revenue and an EPS of 4.00 for International Business Machines Corp's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for International Business Machines Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forInternational Business Machines Corp's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 28, 2026. International Business Machines Corp IBM is expected to outperform due to strategic acquisitions, strong AI and software demand, and operational efficiencies.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade IBM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 28, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like International Business Machines Corp FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
