Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction

10/22 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/22 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 3.01B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.03 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

3.01B

3.12B

+3.78%

EPSBEAT

2.03

2.11

+3.94%

AI Summary

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q3

Earnings Date: Oct 22, 2025

The forecast predicts a miss in key metrics due to labor disruptions and weak RevPAR performance.

Miss

Last 0 quarters:

3 beats2 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

10%

+5-7%

RevPAR surprise in U.S./China + strike resolution.

Beat

20%

+2-4%

Better-than-feared RevPAR + stable margins.

Neutral

30%

Flat

Metrics meet lowered expectations.

Miss

30%

-3-5%

RevPAR misses + margin compression.

Strong Miss

10%

-8-10%

China RevPAR collapse + protracted labor issues.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Miss

Weak RevPAR (U.S. and Asia Pacific) and strike-related occupancy risks.

EPS

Miss

Margin pressure from labor costs and slower RevPAR recovery.

Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Miss

Wage inflation and operational inefficiencies from strikes.

RevPAR Growth

Miss

Analyst consensus on Q3 softness; no China turnaround signals.

Net Unit Growth

Neutral

No evidence of slowdown, but lack of upside catalysts offsets stability.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Key Fact Data Drivers:

Labor Disruptions: The ongoing strike in Houston (amplified by Senator Sanders’ public support) risks operational disruptions and increased wage pressures. While Hilton’s scale mitigates immediate financial damage, prolonged labor tensions could signal rising costs (pressuring Adjusted EBITDA margins).
RevPAR Weakness: Multiple analysts (Barclays, Bernstein) highlight U.S. RevPAR underperformance in 2025, with Q3 expectations termed "soft." Asia Pacific/China RevPAR lacks positive catalysts in Fact Data, aligning with market concerns about regional weakness.
Franchise Fees and Unit Growth: No explicit negative signals, but lowered 2026 estimates (Barclays) and muted Q3 guidance (Raymond James) suggest franchise momentum may not offset RevPAR headwinds sufficiently.

Consensus Context:

Revenue/EPS estimates have been revised downward slightly (- 0.24%/- 0.61%), but Fact Data implies risks skewed toward greater downside on core metrics (RevPAR, China recovery).
Stock underperformance (- 4.35% vs. S&P + 4.05%) reflects lowered expectations, but labor and RevPAR issues likely outweigh low-bar upside.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Short-Term Bearish Put Spreads: Buy Oct/Nov $250 puts, sell $240 puts to hedge downside.
Post-Earnings Long Entry: If stock drops >5% on miss, consider calls for Q4 recovery play (management’s "easier comps" narrative).
Avoid Long Volatility: Implied volatility may compress post-earnings; focus on directional plays.

Rationale: The combination of labor risks and RevPAR stagnation creates asymmetric downside, while Q4 optimism limits long-term bearish exposure.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

HLT Transcript

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-22

The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate a generally positive outlook. Despite flat RevPAR expectations, the company projects growth in net unit and adjusted EBITDA, with significant shareholder returns planned. Optimistic guidance on future economic trends and a focus on AI and efficiency suggest potential growth. The Q&A reveals management's confidence in strategic initiatives and partnerships. Overall, the sentiment leans towards positive, with potential for stock price appreciation.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Neutral7-23

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Unknown4-30

The earnings call summary shows mixed signals: positive EPS and EBITDA growth, strong unit growth, and a robust development pipeline, but offset by flat RevPAR expectations and macroeconomic risks. The Q&A reveals management's cautious optimism but also highlights potential downside risks. The shareholder return plan is strong, but competitive pressures and economic uncertainties weigh on the outlook. Overall, these factors suggest a neutral sentiment, with no strong catalysts for significant stock price movement in either direction over the next two weeks.

Earnings call transcript: Hilton Q1 2025 earnings beat expectations

Unknown4-29

While Hilton reported strong financial performance and growth metrics, concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty, potential recession impacts, and vague management responses in the Q&A create a mixed sentiment. The company's robust shareholder return plans and solid growth figures are counterbalanced by flat travel demand and cautious developer sentiment. Without a market cap, it's difficult to predict the exact stock movement, but the overall sentiment suggests a neutral outlook with potential volatility due to external economic factors.

HLT Report

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. 10-K

10-K

2025-02-06

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-10-23

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-07

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-04-24

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 22, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 3.01B in revenue and an EPS of 2.03 for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc's FY2025Q3.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 22, 2025. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc The forecast predicts a miss in key metrics due to labor disruptions and weak RevPAR performance.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade HLT Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 22, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc FY2025Q3?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!