FedEx Corp (FDX) FY2026Q1 Earning Prediction
FedEx Corp (FDX) is set to release its FY2026Q1 earnings performance on 09/18 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 22.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 3.65 for the FY2026Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The forecast suggests a likely miss in earnings due to tariff impacts, stagnant demand, and leadership challenges.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
The Fact Data points to near-term headwinds outweighing potential tailwinds:
- Tariff and Volume Risks: Analysts (BofA, JPMorgan) highlight adverse impacts from the removal of U.S. de minimis exemptions (hurting International Priority/Economy revenue, ~17% of total) and "stagnant" B2B demand. These directly challenge the international export volume and U.S. priority volume growth metrics critical to revenue.
- Negative Estimate Revisions: BofA lowered FY26 EPS estimates by 6-7%, reflecting muted air peak season expectations and tariff pressures. Citi/JPMorgan also trimmed targets, signaling consensus skepticism.
- Leadership Turmoil: The abrupt departure of CDIO Sriram Krishnasamy amid an investigation into inflated performance at FedEx Dataworks introduces execution risk for cost management (DRIVE program) and modernization efforts.
- Mixed China Signals: While the CEO’s China visit could aid long-term China-U.S. volume recovery, immediate benefits are unlikely to materialize in Q1 given tariff uncertainty and macro softness.
Offsetting factors (e.g., BNP Paribas Exane upgrade citing relative yield growth) are insufficient to counter near-term downside risks.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Short-Term Options: Buy Sept 24 expiry ATM puts (e.g., $230 strike) to hedge against tariff/volume-driven misses.
- Pairs Trade: Short FDX vs. long UPS (UPS faces similar macro risks but lacks FDX’s leadership overhang).
- Post-Earnings Swing: If FDX dips below $220 on a Miss, consider long-term calls (Jan 2026 expiry) as DRIVE savings and China normalization could reverse sentiment later in FY26.
Rationale: The market underweights near-term execution risks from leadership changes and tariff impacts, while valuation (P/E ~12x) offers limited downside cushion. A conservative positioning aligns with the elevated Miss/Strong Miss probability (40%).
Earnings Surprise Analysis
FDX Transcript
The earnings call presents a balanced outlook with positive elements, such as new Amazon business and expected peak season growth, outweighing concerns like international export pressures. The Q&A reveals management's confidence in overcoming temporary costs and achieving high-end earnings through strong revenue and cost management. Optimistic guidance, transformation savings, and strategic initiatives, such as Network 2.0 and healthcare market focus, support a positive sentiment. However, the lack of specific guidance details and ongoing headwinds temper expectations, leading to a predicted stock price movement of 2% to 8%.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. Basic financial performance shows positive trends in revenue and EPS growth, but is offset by significant headwinds from global trade and reduced demand. Product development and market strategy are promising with Network 2.0 and data monetization, yet uncertainties remain. The Q&A highlights concerns about trade headwinds and lack of specific guidance. Despite positive shareholder returns, overall sentiment is neutral due to these uncertainties and challenges.
FDX Slides
FDX Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the FedEx Corp FY2026Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
FedEx Corp (FDX) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q1 earnings report onSep 18, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for FedEx Corp FY2026Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 22.00B in revenue and an EPS of 4.00 for FedEx Corp's FY2026Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for FedEx Corp FY2026Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forFedEx Corp's FY2026Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Sep 18, 2025. FedEx Corp The forecast suggests a likely miss in earnings due to tariff impacts, stagnant demand, and leadership challenges.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade FDX Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theSep 18, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like FedEx Corp FY2026Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
