Exelon Corp (EXC) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Exelon Corp (EXC) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 02/12 06:50:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 5.54B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.53 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The forecast predicts a neutral outcome for EXC's earnings due to regulatory risks, debt issuance impacts, and limited growth catalysts.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Justification:
Regulatory & Political Headwinds: Multiple analysts (Wolfe, KeyBanc) highlight heightened regulatory/political risks in EXC’s key states (e.g., Illinois, Maryland). These could delay rate-case approvals or reduce allowed returns, pressuring EPS growth.
Debt Issuance Impact: EXC’s $900M convertible notes offering adds to interest expenses, potentially offsetting operational gains. Consensus already factors in downward EPS revisions (- 1.88% over 3 months).
Limited Growth Catalysts: Analysts (KeyBanc, UBS) note EXC’s “wires-only” business model and lack of near-term growth catalysts (e.g., data center upside remains speculative). Rate-base growth ( 7.4%) is priced in, but affordability pressures may cap upside.
Mixed Signals: While EXC appointed a new tech-focused executive (potential operational efficiency gains), this is unlikely to materially impact FY2025Q4 results.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy:
- Short-Term: Sell straddles around earnings (IV crush likely given low volatility expectations).
- Long-Term: Avoid directional bets until regulatory clarity emerges (e.g., Illinois gubernatorial elections in 2026).
- Options Play: Buy March 2026 $42/$47 strangle (low-cost hedge against regulatory shocks vs. modest upside).
Earnings Surprise Analysis
EXC Transcript
The earnings call summary presents several positive aspects: significant O&M savings, improved customer reliability, and a focus on affordability. The Q&A section reinforces confidence in the company's growth strategy and regulatory approach. Despite some vague responses, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong financial metrics, successful cost management, and proactive stakeholder engagement. The reaffirmed guidance and optimistic growth outlook are likely to support a positive stock price movement, particularly if the company follows through on its strategic plans.
The earnings call summary reveals strong financial performance with increased EPS, reaffirmed guidance, and a robust rate base growth. The Q&A section emphasizes opportunities in legislation and transmission, with management expressing optimism about settlements and agreements. Despite some uncertainties, the overall sentiment leans positive due to strong financial metrics, strategic growth plans, and optimistic management outlook, suggesting a likely positive stock price movement.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture with several negative aspects. The financial performance shows a decline in operating earnings, while rising operational costs and financial pressures from customer relief initiatives add strain. Despite some positive developments like investment plans and potential transmission opportunities, these are overshadowed by financial challenges and unclear management responses in the Q&A section. Additionally, the refusal to provide clear guidance on certain initiatives contributes to a negative sentiment. Overall, the negative financial results and uncertainties suggest a likely negative stock price reaction in the short term.
The earnings call presents a mixed sentiment. Financial performance shows improvement with strong EPS growth, but increased interest expenses and vague management responses in the Q&A raise concerns. The investment plan and shareholder return strategy are positive, but the equity financing and share issuance could dilute stock value. The lack of clarity on regulatory impacts and resource adequacy further tempers optimism. Considering these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral outlook.
EXC Slides
EXC Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Exelon Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Exelon Corp (EXC) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report on Feb 12, 2026, Pre-Market (approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Exelon Corp FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 5.54B in revenue and an EPS of 0.53 for Exelon Corp's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Exelon Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral for Exelon Corp's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 12, 2026. Exelon Corp The forecast predicts a neutral outcome for EXC's earnings due to regulatory risks, debt issuance impacts, and limited growth catalysts.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade EXC Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of the Feb 12, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Exelon Corp FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company's earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They're updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
