Elevance Health Inc (ELV) FY2025Q1 Earning Prediction
Elevance Health Inc (ELV) is set to release its FY2025Q1 earnings performance on 04/22 06:00:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 46.25B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 11.97 for the FY2025Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Elevance is expected to beat earnings expectations driven by strong EPS performance and stable revenue growth.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Fact Data Insights:
- Pre-Announced EPS Beat: Elevance pre-announced Q1 adjusted EPS of $ 11.97, significantly exceeding consensus ($ 11.38), driven by disciplined medical cost management in Medicare Advantage. This strongly supports an EPS beat.
- Carillon Services Growth: The acquisition of Verily’s Granular insurance business (Feb 2025) likely contributed to Carillon Services’ revenue, aligning with the key metric of exceeding growth targets.
- Medicaid Cost Stabilization: Medical cost trends were reported as "in line with expectations," suggesting stabilization in Medicaid’s benefit expense ratio.
- Medicare Advantage Tailwinds: CMS finalized a ** 5.06% payment increase** for Medicare Advantage (2025–2026), though full impact is likely future-oriented. Membership guidance ( 2.2– 2.25M) remains on track.
- Risks Mitigated: Despite Medicaid duplicate payment headlines ($ 4.3B industry-wide), Elevance’s pre-announcement indicates no material Q1 cost surprises.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Options Play: Buy short-dated calls (April/May expiry) to capitalize on post-earnings upside if revenue surprises.
- Stock: Consider holding through earnings, as EPS beat is priced in, but guidance optimism could drive further gains.
- Hedge: Pair with put options on peers (e.g., HUM, CVS) exposed to Medicare Advantage utilization risks.
Rationale: The pre-announced EPS beat reduces downside risk, while revenue upside from Carillon Services and Medicaid stabilization could drive a moderate rally. Policy overhangs (Medicaid/Medicare reforms) limit "Strong Beat" probability.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
ELV Transcript
The earnings call presents several concerns: declining Medicaid margins, membership losses, and unclear management responses. Despite some positive aspects like Carelon growth and strategic repositioning, these are overshadowed by negative trends and uncertainties, particularly around Medicare and Medicaid. The Q&A revealed further risks and lack of clarity, which likely weigh on investor sentiment. Given these factors, along with the absence of strong positive catalysts, a negative stock price reaction is anticipated.
The earnings call reflects concerns about Medicaid margin decline, ACA market contraction, and lack of clarity on certain financial metrics. Despite some positive developments in specialty pharmacy and Medicare strategy, the overall tone is cautious with significant risks in Medicaid and ACA markets. The revised EPS guidance and potential Medicaid margin trough in 2026 suggest challenges ahead. The market is likely to react negatively, especially without clear guidance on key metrics, leading to a predicted stock price movement in the -2% to -8% range.
The earnings call showed strong financial performance with a 15% revenue increase and significant EPS growth. Despite some challenges in Medicaid and ACA margins, the company is taking proactive measures to address these. Share repurchases indicate confidence, and the optimistic guidance suggests future growth. The Q&A section highlighted strategic actions to stabilize markets and improve cost structures, which are positive indicators. Overall, the company's initiatives and financial outlook suggest a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings report shows strong financial metrics like revenue and EPS growth, but also highlights challenges such as increased costs and membership growth issues. The Q&A section reveals management's confidence in managing costs and growth, but some responses lacked clarity, particularly on risk coding and Medicaid rates. The share repurchase indicates confidence, but the economic pressures on healthcare costs and higher benefit expense ratio offset the positives, leading to a neutral sentiment overall.
ELV Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Elevance Health Inc FY2025Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Elevance Health Inc (ELV) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q1 earnings report onApr 22, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Elevance Health Inc FY2025Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 46.25B in revenue and an EPS of 11.97 for Elevance Health Inc's FY2025Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Elevance Health Inc FY2025Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forElevance Health Inc's FY2025Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Apr 22, 2025. Elevance Health Inc Elevance is expected to beat earnings expectations driven by strong EPS performance and stable revenue growth.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade ELV Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theApr 22, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Elevance Health Inc FY2025Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
