D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) FY2026Q1 Earning Prediction
D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) is set to release its FY2026Q1 earnings performance on 01/20 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 6.71B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.96 for the FY2026Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
D.R. Horton is predicted to miss earnings expectations due to margin pressures and demand uncertainty.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
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Prediction Logic & Rational
The Fact Data highlights significant headwinds for D.R. Horton (DHI) despite potential tailwinds from policy shifts:
- Margin Pressure: Analyst reports (Citizens, Wells Fargo, RBC) emphasize persistent gross margin headwinds due to higher incentives, litigation costs, and peer discounting to clear inventory. These factors directly challenge the Gross Profit Margin metric, a key market concern.
- Demand Uncertainty: While Trump’s proposed ban on institutional homebuyers could theoretically boost demand for D.R. Horton’s homes, the policy’s implementation timeline and efficacy remain unclear. Meanwhile, affordability constraints (highlighted by RBC, Citi) and rising mortgage rates (pre-policy) likely suppressed demand in the quarter.
- Cancellation Risk: DHI’s cancellation rate may remain elevated due to affordability pressures, as noted by multiple downgrades (Wells Fargo, Citizens).
- Consensus Aggressiveness: Analysts (Citizens, JPMorgan) question overly optimistic FY2026/FY2027 EPS estimates, suggesting consensus may not fully price in margin compression risks.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Bearish Plays (Miss/Strong Miss Scenarios):
Short Stock: DHI’s 8.68% outperformance vs. S&P 500 suggests high expectations; a miss could trigger mean reversion.
Buy Put Options: January 2026 $150 puts for downside leverage.
Pairs Trade: Short DHI vs. infrastructure-exposed construction names (e.g., Vulcan Materials) to hedge macro risks.
Neutral Hedge:
- Sell covered calls at $165 strike to monetize elevated volatility around earnings.
Rationale: Margin erosion and consensus skepticism outweigh near-term policy optimism.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
DHI Transcript
The earnings call highlights strong demand, strategic cost management, and positive market outlook, particularly for first-time homebuyers. The company maintains a balanced approach to inventory and starts, with plans to increase share repurchases. Despite some uncertainties, such as SG&A guidance, the optimistic guidance and strategic focus on affordability and community expansion suggest a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. While there are positive indicators like strong order growth in certain regions and a significant share repurchase plan, concerns exist over elevated sales incentives, sticky lot costs, and reduced gross margins. The Q&A reveals management's strategic flexibility and confidence but highlights uncertainties in market conditions and costs. The lack of specific guidance on gross margins and incentives adds to the neutral sentiment. Given the absence of market cap data, a neutral prediction is appropriate, balancing positive long-term housing market outlook against current economic volatility.
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While financial metrics like homebuilding return and share repurchase plans are positive, concerns include increased incentives affecting margins, and unclear responses on cost impacts. The Q&A highlighted uncertainties in geographic demand and costs. With stable rental revenues but declining margins, the sentiment is balanced. The absence of market cap data suggests a cautious approach, leading to a neutral prediction for stock movement.
The earnings call presents mixed signals. While there are positive aspects like strong shareholder returns and a significant share repurchase plan, financial metrics such as EPS and revenue have declined year-over-year. The guidance for revenue is optimistic but offset by increased SG&A expenses and a decline in gross profit margins. The Q&A session did not reveal any major new risks or positive catalysts. Given the lack of a strong positive or negative catalyst, the overall sentiment is neutral, suggesting a stock price movement within -2% to 2% over the next two weeks.
DHI Slides
DHI Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the D.R. Horton Inc FY2026Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q1 earnings report onJan 20, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for D.R. Horton Inc FY2026Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 6.71B in revenue and an EPS of 1.96 for D.R. Horton Inc's FY2026Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for D.R. Horton Inc FY2026Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forD.R. Horton Inc's FY2026Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 20, 2026. D.R. Horton Inc D.R. Horton is predicted to miss earnings expectations due to margin pressures and demand uncertainty.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade DHI Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 20, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like D.R. Horton Inc FY2026Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
