Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 02/12 16:11:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 1.85B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.61 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings are expected to beat estimates due to strong institutional and subscription revenues, despite weaker consumer spot trading.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
The Fact Data highlights positive catalysts in institutional transaction revenue and subscription/services growth, offsetting weaker consumer spot trading volumes. Key points:
Institutional Transaction Revenue: Deribit acquisition and expansion into derivatives/prediction markets (Goldman Sachs, Cantor Fitzgerald) signal structural growth beyond volatile spot trading.
Subscription/Services: USDC growth and custody assets (Deutsche Bank, BofA) provide stable recurring revenue.
Bitcoin price declines likely pressured retail engagement (Fact Data: Bitcoin fell ~18% in Q4), but institutional accumulation (Strategy, Galaxy Digital) and product diversification mitigate downside.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Bullish:
- Stock: Buy COIN ahead of earnings; upside to $160-$170 if "Beat" materializes.
- Options: Feb 150 calls for leverage on upside.
Hedged: - Pairs Trade: Long COIN / Short MSTR (overexposed to BTC downside).
Rationale: Market pessimism (-57% stock decline) creates asymmetric upside if subscription/institutional metrics beat.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
COIN Transcript
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance, with double-digit growth in TELUS Health and AI capabilities, improved EBITDA margins, and a reduced debt ratio. The Q&A section confirms continued ARPU growth and strategic focus on value creation, with no negative changes in capital allocation or dividend policy. Despite some vague responses, the overall sentiment is positive, driven by strategic investments and operational improvements.
The earnings call summary indicates mixed signals: strong financial performance with $11 billion in cash and a focus on buybacks and M&A, but also uncertainty in guidance and market conditions. The Q&A section reveals management's cautious approach to predictions and reluctance to provide specific forecasts, which could temper investor enthusiasm. While there are positive elements like early interest in prediction markets and a solid financial position, the lack of clear guidance and potential market uncertainties balance out the overall sentiment, leading to a neutral prediction.
COIN Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report on Feb 12, 2026, After Hours (approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 1.85B in revenue and an EPS of 0.61 for Coinbase Global Inc's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat for Coinbase Global Inc's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 12, 2026. Coinbase Global Inc The earnings are expected to beat estimates due to strong institutional and subscription revenues, despite weaker consumer spot trading.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade COIN Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of the Feb 12, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company's earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They're updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
