Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction

07/31 04:00:00

After Hours

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 07/31 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 1.59B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.71 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueMISS

1.59B

1.50B

-6.06%

EPSMISS

1.71

0.12

-92.98%

AI Summary

Report

Attend Webcast

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q2

Earnings Date: Jul 31, 2025

Coinbase is expected to exceed market expectations in revenue and EPS due to regulatory clarity, product expansion, and stablecoin growth.

Beat

Last 0 quarters:

2 beats3 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

25%

+10–15%

Revenue >$1.7B, EPS >$1.60 + Deribit integration progress.

Beat

45%

+5–8%

Revenue ~$1.68B, EPS ~$1.50.

Neutral

15%

Flat

Transaction revenue misses offset subscription growth.

Miss

10%

-5–7%

Data breach costs escalate + trading volumes plummet.

Strong Miss

-15%+

Regulatory setbacks (CLARITY Act stalls) + Altcoin crash.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Beat

Regulatory clarity + product launches (Payments, perpetual futures) drive subscription/services and transaction revenue above consensus.

EPS

Beat

Higher-than-expected stablecoin revenue (USDC) and cost discipline offset one-time breach costs.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Key Fact Data Drivers:

Regulatory Tailwinds & Institutional Adoption:

Legislative progress (GENIUS/CLARITY Acts) and Trump’s executive order allowing crypto in 401(k)s signal reduced regulatory risk, driving institutional inflows.
JPMorgan’s deposit token pilot on Coinbase’s Base blockchain and PNC Bank partnership validate institutional traction, boosting subscription/services revenue.

Product Expansion & Stablecoin Growth:

Coinbase Payments integration with Shopify and USDC adoption (Webuy, Stripe) directly support subscription/services revenue growth.
MiCA license in Europe expands market access to 450M users, diversifying revenue streams.

Transaction Revenue Risks:

Perpetual futures launch and Coinbase One Card could offset QoQ volume declines noted by Oppenheimer (-44% QoQ). Bitcoin’s all-time high ($109K) likely drove retail trading activity.

Cost Management & Integration Risks:

Deribit acquisition synergies (derivatives revenue) are not yet quantifiable but add optionality.
Data breach costs ($180M–$400M) may pressure EPS but are non-recurring.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Pre-Earnings Play:

Buy August $400 calls (IV spike post-earnings likely).
Sell July $410 calls (capitalize on elevated volatility).
Post-Earnings Play:
If Beat/Strong Beat: Hold shares (S&P 500 inclusion boosts institutional demand).
If Miss: Short-term put spreads (e.g., $380/$360) to hedge regulatory risk.
Rationale: High institutional interest (S&P 500 inclusion) and regulatory catalysts (post-election clarity) favor upside skew despite elevated expectations.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

COIN Transcript

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Presents at 53rd Annual Nasdaq Investor Conference Transcript

Neutral12-13

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Presents at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral12-9

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-30

The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal positive indicators: strong Q3 revenue outlook, strategic investments due to regulatory clarity, and growth in subscription services. Partnerships with major institutions like JPMorgan and Shopify, as well as the integration of Deribit, bolster the sentiment. Although there are concerns about AWS outages and unclear responses on certain topics, the overall narrative is positive, with a focus on market expansion and product development. These factors suggest a likely positive stock price movement.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Presents At Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (Transcript)

Neutral9-9

COIN Report

Coinbase Global, Inc. 10-K

10-K

2025-02-13

Coinbase Global, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-10-30

Coinbase Global, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-01

Coinbase Global, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-02

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onJul 31, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 1.59B in revenue and an EPS of 1.71 for Coinbase Global Inc's FY2025Q2.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q2 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forCoinbase Global Inc's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 31, 2025. Coinbase Global Inc Coinbase is expected to exceed market expectations in revenue and EPS due to regulatory clarity, product expansion, and stablecoin growth.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade COIN Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 31, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q2?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!