Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction

07/15 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 07/15 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 4.83B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.74 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

4.83B

5.03B

+4.00%

EPSBEAT

1.74

1.94

+11.49%

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q2

Earnings Date: Jul 15, 2025

The earnings forecast suggests a likely 'Beat' due to operational resilience and strategic initiatives.

Beat

Last 0 quarters:

5 beats0 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

20%

+3-5%

EPS beats by >5%, merger progress confirmed.

Beat

45%

+1-2%

EPS meets/beats modestly (~2-4%), no negative surprises.

Neutral

25%

Flat to -2%

EPS in line, revenue neutral. Valuation concerns dominate.

Miss

-3-5%

EPS misses on unexpected costs or AUM outflows.

Strong Miss

-6-8%

Guidance cut, merger talks collapse.

Unlock Free Scenario Probability

Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Neutral

No direct catalysts (e.g., AUM inflows, fee rebound) in Fact Data to drive upside. Merger talks are forward-looking.

EPS

Beat

Dividend hike and reiterated guidance signal earnings resilience. Cost discipline likely offsets revenue stagnation.

Unlock Free Key Indicators Forecast

Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Key Fact Data Insights:

Dividend Increase (13%): The planned dividend hike signals confidence in liquidity and profitability, directly supporting EPS growth through retained earnings strength.
Merger Talks with Northern Trust: While not impacting Q2 metrics, strategic discussions highlight long-term growth potential in wealth management and cost synergies, indirectly reinforcing confidence in management execution.
Q1 Earnings Beat & Guidance Reiteration: Management’s reaffirmed full-year guidance after a Q1 beat suggests operational discipline, favoring EPS stability.
Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Truist’s downgrade reflects concerns about valuation after strong performance, but Morgan Stanley’s reiterated Overweight rating emphasizes confidence in operating leverage.

Consensus Context:

Stock price outperformance (+ 18.77% vs. S&P 500’s + 14.05%) implies high expectations. However, EPS estimate revisions (+ 1.32%) remain modest, leaving room for upside if execution aligns with fundamentals.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Options Play:
- Bullish: Buy August $95 calls (capitalizing on potential post-earnings pop if EPS beats).
- Hedged: Sell July $90 puts (collect premium given low Miss probability).
Stock Positioning:
- Trim positions pre-earnings if holding >3 months of gains (risk of profit-taking).
- Add on dips below $90 if macro conditions stabilize.

Rationale: The dividend hike and EPS resilience favor a Beat, but high expectations limit upside. Focus on volatility compression post-event.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

BK Transcript

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) Presents at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral12-10

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Unknown10-16

The earnings call shows mixed signals. Strong revenue growth in Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services is positive, but a decline in Investment and Wealth Management revenue is concerning. Management's optimistic guidance on new client wins and digital assets is offset by vague responses and a lack of clear metrics. The commitment to shareholder returns is positive, but the uncertain impact of market conditions and expenses tempers enthusiasm. Overall, the sentiment is neutral due to balanced positives and negatives, with no clear catalyst for a strong stock price movement.

The Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) Presents At Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral9-9

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive7-15

The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with a positive outlook, including impressive ROTCE and fee growth. The Q&A reveals management's strategic focus on organic growth, efficiency, and innovation, particularly through AI integration. While cautious on guidance, the commitment to shareholder returns and potential for inorganic growth are positive signals. Despite some conservative guidance, the overall sentiment is optimistic, suggesting a positive stock price movement.

BK Slides

BNY Mellon Q2 2025 slides: revenue up 9%, EPS surges 27% as margins expand

2025-07-15

BK Report

Bank of New York Mellon Corp 10-Q

10-Q

2025-08-01

Bank of New York Mellon Corp 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-02

Bank of New York Mellon Corp 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-03

Bank of New York Mellon Corp 10-K

10-K

2024-02-28

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bank of New York Mellon Corp FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onJul 15, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Bank of New York Mellon Corp FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 4.83B in revenue and an EPS of 1.74 for Bank of New York Mellon Corp's FY2025Q2.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Bank of New York Mellon Corp FY2025Q2 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forBank of New York Mellon Corp's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 15, 2025. Bank of New York Mellon Corp The earnings forecast suggests a likely 'Beat' due to operational resilience and strategic initiatives.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade BK Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 15, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Bank of New York Mellon Corp FY2025Q2?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!