Ares Management Corp (ARES) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction

08/01 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Ares Management Corp (ARES) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 08/01 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 962.25M and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.11 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

962.25M

993.10M

+3.21%

EPSMISS

1.11

1.03

-7.21%

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q2

Earnings Date: Aug 1, 2025

Earnings are anticipated to align closely with consensus, reflecting a neutral outlook with limited upside potential.

Neutral

Last 0 quarters:

3 beats2 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

20%

+5-7%

FRE margins expand >42% + AUM growth >20% YoY.

Beat

35%

+2-4%

Revenue beats on AUM growth, EPS meets consensus.

Neutral

30%

Flat to ±1%

Metrics align with consensus, no margin surprises.

Miss

10%

-3-5%

FRE margin contraction >1% + slower deployment.

Strong Miss

-8-10%

Realized income growth slows sharply (<30% YoY).

Unlock Free Scenario Probability

Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Beat

Strategic acquisitions (Plenitude, solar JV) and European expansion likely drive AUM growth and management fees. Analysts note robust fundraising/deployment.

EPS

Neutral

Margin pressures from integration costs and lack of explicit realized income catalysts offset revenue gains. EPS estimate revisions (-1.1%) reflect caution.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Fact Data Analysis:

Mixed Analyst Sentiment:

Bullish: TD Cowen and Barclays highlight strong capital markets activity, fundraising momentum, and confidence in exceeding KPIs.
Neutral/Caution: Raymond James and Oppenheimer cite fair valuation and lack of near-term catalysts.
Key Takeaway: Positive growth drivers exist, but market expectations are already elevated (stock up 17% vs. S&P 13.7%), leaving limited room for upside surprise.

Strategic Growth Initiatives (AUM/Management Fees):

Plenitude Acquisition (EUR 2B): Adds renewable energy assets (10M+ customers, 21.5K EV charging points), likely boosting AUM and fee revenue.
Solar JV with Savion (496MW): Expands infrastructure portfolio, aligning with ESG trends and stable cash flows.
Milan Office Expansion: Strengthens European direct lending/wealth management, supporting fundraising.

Margin Pressure Risks:

FRE Margin Stability: Integration costs from acquisitions (GCP, Plenitude) could temporarily drag margins. Limited explicit evidence of operational efficiency improvements.

Realized Income Uncertainty:

Prior 40% YoY growth sets a high bar. No concrete data on capital deployment pace or exit activity to confirm continued growth.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Options Play (Neutral Bias):
- Sell short-dated OTM calls (e.g., $200 strike) and buy puts (e.g., $180 strike) for August expiry.
- Rationale: High IV from earnings volatility + capped upside due to valuation concerns.
Stock Pair Trade:
- Long ARES / Short Apollo Global (APO) to hedge sector-wide M&A risks. ARES’ solar/energy transition focus offers relative insulation vs. APO’s Atletico Madrid speculation.
Post-Earnings Swing:
- Buy dips if AUM growth exceeds $350B (Q1: $305B) or FRE margins stabilize above 41.5%.

Key Risk: Market overreacts to margin softness despite structural AUM growth.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

ARES Transcript

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Presents at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral12-10

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Presents at Citizens Financial Services Conference 2025 Transcript

Neutral11-18

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive11-3

The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, optimistic guidance, and strategic growth initiatives, including increased dividends, robust fundraising, and expansion in real estate and private credit. The Q&A section reinforces positive sentiment, with management addressing concerns effectively and emphasizing growth opportunities. The positive outlook for real estate and private credit, coupled with strategic acquisitions and increased dividends, suggests a strong positive impact on stock price.

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Presents At Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference (Transcript)

Neutral9-9

ARES Slides

Ares Management Q1 2025 slides: AUM surges to $545.9 billion, realized income up 40%

2025-05-05

Ares Management Q2 2025 slides: AUM surges 28% YoY, Fee Related Earnings up 26%

2025-08-01

Ares Management Q3 2025 slides: AUM surges 28%, stock jumps on earnings beat

2025-11-03

ARES Report

Ares Management Corp 10-Q

10-Q

2024-11-08

Ares Management Corp 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-07

Ares Management Corp 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-09

Ares Management Corp 10-K

10-K

2024-02-27

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ares Management Corp FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Ares Management Corp (ARES) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onAug 1, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Ares Management Corp FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 962.25M in revenue and an EPS of 1.11 for Ares Management Corp's FY2025Q2.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Ares Management Corp FY2025Q2 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forAres Management Corp's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Aug 1, 2025. Ares Management Corp Earnings are anticipated to align closely with consensus, reflecting a neutral outlook with limited upside potential.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade ARES Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theAug 1, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Ares Management Corp FY2025Q2?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!