Apollo Global Management Inc (APO) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction

11/04 05:00:00

Pre-Market

Apollo Global Management Inc (APO) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 11/04 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 1.10B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.77 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

1.10B

1.15B

+4.39%

EPSBEAT

1.77

1.90

+7.34%

AI Summary

Report

Attend Webcast

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q3

Earnings Date: Nov 4, 2025

Apollo is expected to beat revenue forecasts due to strategic partnerships and AUM growth, though EPS may remain neutral due to integration costs.

Beat

Last 0 quarters:

5 beats0 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

15%

+8-10%

Faster-than-expected AUM inflows + SRE stabilization.

Beat

40%

+3-5%

Revenue growth meets revised consensus, EPS in line.

Neutral

25%

Flat

Mixed AUM growth and cost drags offset FRE strength.

Miss

15%

-4-6%

SRE deterioration or delayed partnership contributions.

Strong Miss

-10%+

Credit quality concerns materialize (e.g., Athene outflows).

Unlock Free Scenario Probability

Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Beat

Strategic partnerships and AUM growth from acquisitions/partnerships likely offset market headwinds.

EPS

Neutral

Higher origination volumes and FRE growth offset by integration costs and potential SRE stagnation.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Revenue Growth Drivers:
Strategic Partnerships: Apollo’s alliances with 8VC (industrial sectors) and Coinbase (stablecoin/credit strategies) signal expanded origination capabilities and future revenue streams. While Coinbase products launch in 2026, the partnership demonstrates Apollo’s proactive positioning in high-growth areas.
AUM Expansion: Recent acquisitions (Eagle Creek Renewable Energy, Bridge Investment Group) and joint ventures (RWE’s Amprion stake) add fee-generating AUM. The $5B sports fund and $ 7.4B Air Lease deal further diversify AUM sources.
Global Wealth Momentum: Leadership appointments (Bert Crouch in real estate, Yasuo Kashiwagi in Japan) and Athene’s lower "related party" exposure (12% vs. peers) suggest improved distribution channels for inflows.
EPS Risks:
Integration Costs: Acquisitions (Kelvion, Trace3) and divestitures (Heritage Grocers, AOL) may pressure near-term margins.
Spread Pressure: No explicit data on improved SRE spreads; analyst concerns about credit performance persist.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Equities: Buy APO shares ahead of earnings. The stock’s underperformance (-16.6% vs. S&P 500 +8%) suggests low expectations; even a modest beat could trigger a relief rally.
Options: Sell November $120 puts (capitalize on downside skepticism) or buy November $130 calls (leveraged upside play).
Caution: Hedge with S&P 500 puts if macro risks (credit spreads) escalate post-earnings.

Catalysts to Watch:

Athene Flow Data: Confirm organic inflow stability.
Origination Volume Traction: Post-partnership deal closures (8VC, sports fund).
Credit Spreads: Q3 commentary on blended net spreads.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

APO Transcript

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Presents at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral12-10

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive11-4

The earnings call indicates robust financial performance with record AUM and strong inflows, alongside optimistic guidance in asset management and retirement services. The Q&A section highlights management's confidence in sustaining growth, despite some ambiguity in revising targets. The strategic plan and recent acquisition further bolster positive sentiment. Overall, the company's performance and outlook suggest a strong positive impact on the stock price.

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Presents at Bank of America 30th Annual Financials CEO Conference 2025 Transcript

Neutral9-16

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Presents At Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference (Transcript)

Neutral9-9

APO Slides

Apollo Global Management Q2 2025 slides: AUM surges 21% to $840 billion

2025-08-05

APO Report

Apollo Global Management, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2025-08-07

Apollo Global Management, Inc. 10-K

10-K

2025-02-24

Apollo Global Management, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-08

Apollo Global Management, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-07

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Apollo Global Management Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Apollo Global Management Inc (APO) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onNov 4, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Apollo Global Management Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 1.10B in revenue and an EPS of 1.77 for Apollo Global Management Inc's FY2025Q3.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Apollo Global Management Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forApollo Global Management Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Nov 4, 2025. Apollo Global Management Inc Apollo is expected to beat revenue forecasts due to strategic partnerships and AUM growth, though EPS may remain neutral due to integration costs.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade APO Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theNov 4, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Apollo Global Management Inc FY2025Q3?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!