XYF Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how XYF performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, XYF sees a -9.00% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.68% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +4.08%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
XYF Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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XYF Earnings Analysis
X Financial Corporation (XYF.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Loan Volume Surge: Total loan volumes exceeded guidance with RMB32 billion facilitated in Q4, a 24% year-over-year increase.
Stable Loan Volume Performance: Full year total loan volumes reached RMB104.9 billion, reflecting stable performance compared to 2023.
Profitability Surge: Net income more than doubled year-over-year in Q4, indicating strong profitability growth.
Delinquency Rate Improvement: Delinquency rates improved significantly, with 31-60 days overdue loans decreasing to 1.17% from 1.57% year-over-year.
Stimulus Measures Impact: The Chinese government's monetary and fiscal stimulus measures supported borrower demand and lowered funding costs.
Loan Volume Growth Expectations: Expectations for total loan volumes to increase by approximately 30% in 2025 due to organic demand and a stable regulatory environment.
Net Revenue Surge: Total net revenue increased 43% year-over-year to RMB1.7 billion in Q4.
Record Revenue and Income: Full year total net revenue reached a record RMB5.9 billion, with net income growing to RMB1.5 billion.
Shareholder Equity Increase: Strong balance sheet with total shareholder equity increasing by 19% year-over-year.
Shareholder Returns Overview: Returned approximately USD76 million to shareholders in 2024, including cash dividends and share repurchases.
Dividend Approval Announcement: Board approved a semiannual dividend of USD0.25 per ADS, reinforcing commitment to shareholder value.
Share Repurchase Activity: Repurchased 38.4 million Class A ordinary shares in Q4, totaling USD49 million, with a total of USD59.4 million repurchased in 2024.
Negative
Loan Volume Analysis: Total loan volumes for Q4 were RMB32 billion, which, while a 24% year-over-year increase, indicates a reliance on external economic factors such as government stimulus rather than organic growth.
Net Income Growth Concerns: Despite a doubling of net income year-over-year, the company’s overall growth is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, raising concerns about sustainability in a changing economic environment.
Delinquency Rate Concerns: The delinquency rates, although improved, still indicate a level of risk with 1.17% for loans overdue by 31 to 60 days and 2.48% for those overdue by 91 to 108 days, suggesting ongoing credit risk management challenges.
AI Investment Uncertainty: The company’s reliance on AI and technology investments, while promising, may not yield immediate results, and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of these strategies in a competitive market.
Loan Volume Forecast Concerns: The forecast for 2025 anticipates a 30% increase in loan volumes, which may be overly optimistic given potential economic fluctuations and regulatory changes that could impact borrower demand.
XYF FAQs
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XYF Earning Call Sentiment
X Financial (NYSE:XYF) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
XYF.N
-10.08%Positive
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, with record high net revenue and net income, significant loan volume growth, and a robust shareholder return plan. The Q&A session suggests optimism with expected loan volume growth and strategic capital allocation. Despite some lack of clarity on profitability forecasts, the overall sentiment is positive, bolstered by share repurchases and dividend commitments. The positive outlook and operational achievements are likely to drive a stock price increase in the short term.
