The Western Union Company (WU) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.

Overview

The earnings call indicates positive momentum with growth in digital and consumer services, strategic partnerships, and AI integration. Despite some fluctuations, the company expects revenue to catch up, supported by new customer growth. Eurochange's contribution and dynamic pricing are promising, and digital penetration is set to increase. While there were some vague responses, the overall outlook, including stable long-term growth and cost efficiencies, suggests a positive sentiment.

Key Financial Performance

Revenue $1.03 billion on an adjusted basis, excluding impacts from Iraq, representing a decline of 1% year-over-year. The decline was attributed to growth in Consumer Services and branded digital offset by the retail business.

Consumer Money Transfer Transaction Growth Down 2.5% in the quarter, excluding Iraq. Cross-border principal growth was up mid-single digits on a constant currency basis, reflecting resilience in the customer base despite macroeconomic challenges.

Branded Digital Business Transactions Increased by 12% and adjusted revenue grew by 6% in the quarter. This marks the eighth consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit or better revenue growth, driven by partnerships in the Middle East and account-to-account transactions.

Consumer Services Adjusted Revenue Up 49% in the quarter, driven by the acquisition of Euro Change and a strong European travel quarter. Travel Money business contributed significantly to this growth.

Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) $0.47 compared to $0.46 in the same quarter a year ago. The increase was due to cost management discipline and fewer shares outstanding, offset by higher interest expenses and a higher adjusted tax rate.

Adjusted Operating Margins 20% in the quarter, up from 19% in the prior year period. The improvement was attributed to cost discipline and the completion of the cost redeployment program ahead of schedule.

Cash Flow Generated over $400 million in operating cash flow year-to-date compared to $272 million in the prior year period. This includes over $200 million in cash taxes paid related to the transition tax.

CapEx $101 million year-to-date, up 10% year-over-year. The increase was due to strategic agent renewals and infrastructure refresh.

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Operating Highlights

Digital Wallet Expansion: Launched in 7 countries, including Brazil and the U.S., with over 0.5 million customers onboarded. Argentina and Brazil show significant adoption rates.

Travel Money Business: Expected to generate $150 million in revenue by 2026, up from nearly nothing in 2023.

Digital Asset Integration: Testing stablecoin-enabled solutions and exploring digital asset transfers to enhance efficiency and customer experience.

Geographic Performance: Strong performance in Europe, South America, and Asia, driven by retail and digital businesses. Weakness in North America, particularly U.S. to Mexico corridor.

Migration Trends: Global migration patterns are evolving, with restrictive U.S. policies impacting transaction volumes. Growth observed in corridors like Canada to India and Singapore to Indonesia.

Cost Discipline: Completed cost redeployment program 2 years ahead of schedule, contributing to a 20% adjusted operating margin.

Digital Transformation: Over 55% of transactions are now digital, with branded digital business achieving 8 consecutive quarters of mid-single-digit or better revenue growth.

Intermex Acquisition: Acquisition to accelerate U.S. retail model development, with integration planning underway.

Consumer Services Growth: Segment now accounts for 15% of total revenue, growing by $200 million in 2 years.

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Risk or Challenges

Macroeconomic Environment: Continued weakness in North America, particularly in the U.S.-to-Mexico corridor, due to geopolitical and economic factors. Decline in consumer money transfer transactions by 2.5% year-over-year, excluding Iraq. U.S. immigration policies have disrupted business, leading to fewer transactions and increased uncertainty in migrant communities.

Regulatory and Policy Risks: Recent U.S. policy changes, including restrictive migration policies and enforcement actions, have created uncertainty and hesitation among migrant communities, impacting transaction frequency and customer behavior. The upcoming U.S. 1% remittance tax on cash transfers in January may further affect transaction volumes.

Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical environment in the Americas continues to create headwinds for the retail business. Declines in key corridors such as Mexico, El Salvador, Peru, and Ecuador.

Competitive Pressures: Need to invest significantly to remain market competitive and improve customer experience. Increased competition in digital and retail channels, requiring continuous innovation and cost management.

Strategic Execution Risks: Integration challenges with the recently announced acquisition of Intermex. Dependence on successful execution of digital transformation and expansion strategies, including digital wallets and payout-to-account capabilities.

Technological and Operational Risks: Potential challenges in scaling new technologies like digital wallets and stablecoin-enabled solutions. Dependence on the successful rollout of new point-of-sale systems and digital payment options.

Economic Uncertainty: Global economic conditions, including inflation and interest rate fluctuations, could impact customer behavior and transaction volumes. Migration patterns remain complex and dynamic, influencing business performance.

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Guidance & Outlook

Revenue Expectations: Adjusted revenue for 2025 is expected to be in the range of $4.035 billion to $4.135 billion, with current trends indicating it will be at the lower end of this range.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Adjusted EPS for 2025 is projected to be in the range of $1.65 to $1.75, with current trends suggesting it will be at the upper end of this range.

Operating Margins: Adjusted operating margins for 2025 are expected to be in the range of 19% to 21%.

Consumer Services Growth: Consumer Services segment is expected to continue double-digit growth, with Travel Money projected to generate $150 million in revenue in 2026, up from nearly nothing in 2023.

Digital Business Expansion: The branded digital business has delivered eight consecutive quarters of mid-single-digit or better revenue growth. Digital wallet offerings are expected to expand to more countries, including a Q1 2026 launch in Australia.

Digital Asset Integration: Western Union is actively testing stablecoin-enabled solutions and exploring opportunities to integrate digital assets into its business to enhance efficiency and customer experience.

Capital Expenditures: CapEx for 2025 is expected to be slightly higher than prior trends due to strategic agent renewals and infrastructure refreshes.

Market Trends and Migration: Global migration patterns are expected to stabilize, with improvements in the U.S. to Mexico corridor and growth in outbound remittances in regions like Argentina, Canada to India, and Singapore to Indonesia.

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Shareholder Return Plan

Dividend Program: Over the past 3 years, Western Union has returned substantial capital to shareholders via dividends. In the third quarter of 2025, the company returned over $120 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and over $400 million during the first 9 months of the year. This represents a cash return to shareholders of over 15% based on the current market cap.

Share Buyback Program: Western Union has actively engaged in share repurchase programs. In the third quarter of 2025, the company returned over $120 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and over $400 million during the first 9 months of the year. This represents a cash return to shareholders of over 15% based on the current market cap.

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Key Q&A

Q:Can you elaborate on the recent trends in the retail and Americas segment, particularly in Mexico?

A:Devin McGranahan stated that the lows from mid-summer have improved, especially in Mexico and other important corridors. However, he noted that while some corridors are growing, others are stable or flat, and trends remain lumpy.

Q:What is the visibility and incremental margins for Travel Money, which is expected to grow 50% next year?

A:Matthew Cagwin explained that the growth is driven by the Eurochange acquisition, expansion into new markets, and a strong management team. He highlighted that the acquisition was made at under 5x valuation and is performing above expectations, providing a great return.

Q:What are the trends in LACA and North America, and how are they impacted by migration patterns and elections?

A:Devin McGranahan mentioned market stability and the lapping effects of declines due to past elections and migration changes. He noted that the region is now seeing stability and a shift in outlook after a year of significant changes.

Q:Why did transaction growth in digital improve from 9% to 12%, but revenue growth remained at 6%?

A:Matthew Cagwin attributed this to partnerships in the Middle East with lower revenue per transaction (RPT) and aggressive new customer pricing strategies. Devin McGranahan added that new customer growth often leads to revenue degradation initially, but revenue is expected to catch up over time.

Q:What is driving the slight improvement in retail guidance for the fourth quarter?

A:Matthew Cagwin and Devin McGranahan cited easier comps in LACA, customer and agent wins, and the implementation of successful European strategies in the U.S. as key drivers for the improvement.

Q:What is the long-term outlook for digital penetration and its impact on the take rate?

A:Devin McGranahan expects digital to grow at double-digit rates, becoming a larger part of the business. He noted opportunities for growth in specific corridors like U.S. to India and Guatemala, and highlighted that digital penetration will continue to increase.

Q:How is Eurochange contributing to consumer services, and what is its impact on organic growth?

A:Matthew Cagwin stated that Eurochange contributed nearly half of the consumer services growth this quarter. He emphasized the long-term sustainability of consumer services growth, supported by new products and ideas.

Q:What are the plans for dynamic pricing in Spain and its rollout to other markets?

A:Devin McGranahan explained that dynamic pricing has been implemented in about half to two-thirds of European markets and is being tested in three U.S. metro markets. The goal is to expand it across the U.S. by 2026, though it has less applicability in regions like the Middle East and Asia.

Q:What are the future opportunities for cost efficiencies?

A:Matthew Cagwin mentioned that future opportunities include adopting new technologies like AI in development and customer service functions, which will yield long-term benefits. Devin McGranahan added that the first phase focused on operational efficiencies, while the next phase will involve technology-driven changes.

Q:What is the strategy for integrating Intermex's advantages into Western Union's operations?

A:Devin McGranahan stated that Intermex's brand, locations, and go-to-market model will be maintained. Western Union plans to integrate Intermex's strategies into its Vigo and Western Union branded independent agents in the U.S.

Q:Have North American trends reached stability, and what caused the fluctuations?

A:Devin McGranahan noted that trends in North America were lumpy, with better performance in July, a tough August, and some improvement in late September and early October. He attributed the fluctuations to market behavior rather than competition.

Q:What is driving the growth in payout to account, and is it sustainable?

A:Matthew Cagwin and Devin McGranahan highlighted consistent 30%-plus growth in payout to account, driven by partnerships, digital acceptance, and changing customer preferences. They view this as a secular change in customer behavior, with long-term margin benefits.

Q:What engagement and retention trends are observed among digital wallet users?

A:Devin McGranahan noted that the most engaged users are in receive markets, using wallets for everyday expenses. He highlighted growth in markets like Argentina, Brazil, and Romania, where wallets are used as an alternative to cash.

Q:How can best practices from Europe be transferred to the U.S. market?

A:Devin McGranahan explained that the European model includes independent agents, strategic pricing, and company-owned stores. Western Union is adapting these practices in the U.S., starting with three metro markets and aiming for broader implementation by 2026.

Q:What caused the decline in North America in August, and is it market-driven?

A:Devin McGranahan attributed the decline to market behavior rather than competition, supported by Bank of Mexico data showing fluctuating transaction trends.

Q:What is the contribution of Eurochange to consumer services growth, and how sustainable is it?

A:Matthew Cagwin stated that Eurochange contributed nearly half of consumer services growth this quarter. He emphasized the sustainability of growth, supported by new products and ideas.

Q:What are the differences between the European and U.S. retail models, and how is Western Union adapting?

A:Devin McGranahan noted that Europe relies on postal systems for distribution, while the U.S. uses strategic accounts like Walmart. Western Union is focusing on expanding its independent agent network in the U.S. and implementing European strategies on a city-by-city basis.

Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses

A:Management avoided directly answering Darrin Peller's question due to poor audio quality. Additionally, James Faucette's question about future cost efficiency programs was met with a vague response, promising more details in a future presentation.

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Earnings Word Cloud

The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call

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