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01/10 23:28
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call shows mixed signals: positive FFO growth and AMR increases, but occupancy challenges and slowed NCIB activity. The Q&A reveals management's cautious approach to acquisitions and rent increases, with ongoing renovations affecting occupancy. Despite some growth in Chicago, pressure in the Sunbelt and Mississauga indicates uncertainties. No strong catalysts for a significant stock movement were identified, leading to a neutral prediction.
Total Assets $4.6 billion, unchanged from December 31, 2024, due to a fair value increase on income-producing properties offset by a decrease from the U.S. dollar exchange rate.
Cash on Hand $77.5 million, with $74.5 million advanced to Morguard Corporation.
Net Asset Value per Unit $44.16 as of September 30, 2025, making the NCIB plan an appealing use of capital.
Annual Cash Distribution Increased by $0.03 per unit (3.95%) to $0.79 per unit annually from $0.76 per unit.
Mortgages Payable Weighted average term to maturity decreased to 5.1 years from 5.2 years, and weighted average interest rate increased to 4.08% from 3.88%.
Debt to Gross Book Value Ratio 39.5%, a slight decrease from 39.7% at December 31, 2024.
Net Income $12.5 million for Q3 2025, compared to a net loss of $18.8 million in 2024. The $31.3 million increase was due to a $67.2 million fair value gain on Class B LPUs and a $3.9 million decrease in deferred income taxes, partially offset by a $40.6 million fair value loss on real estate properties.
IFRS Net Operating Income (NOI) $54.1 million for Q3 2025, a 4% increase ($2.1 million) compared to 2024. Proportionate NOI increased by 2.7%, with Canadian NOI decreasing by $0.3 million (1.6%) due to higher operating expenses and vacancy, and U.S. NOI increasing by $0.9 million (4.2%) due to AMR growth, lower vacancy, and higher ancillary revenue.
Interest Expense Decreased by $0.5 million for Q3 2025 compared to 2024, primarily due to a $2.4 million higher noncash fair value gain on convertible debentures, partially offset by a $1.6 million increase in mortgage interest.
Funds From Operations (FFO) $22.3 million for Q3 2025, a $0.4 million (2%) increase compared to 2024. FFO per unit increased by $0.03 to $0.43 per unit, driven by NOI growth, foreign exchange rate changes, and unit repurchases under NCIB.
FFO Payout Ratio 44.6% for Q3 2025, allowing for significant cash retention.
Average Monthly Rent (AMR) in Canada $1,837 as of September 30, 2025, a 4.7% increase compared to 2024. AMR growth on suite turnover was 14.3%, with occupancy at 94.3% (down from 97.8% in 2024) due to increased competition and new apartment rentals.
Average Monthly Rent (AMR) in the U.S. $1,939 as of September 30, 2025, a 1.5% increase compared to 2024. Occupancy increased to 92.5% from 91.7% in 2024, achieved by modest rent reductions and limited renewal increases.
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) $40.3 million for the 9 months ended September 30, 2025, including revenue-enhancing projects, tenant improvements, and energy initiatives.
Canadian Portfolio Performance: Average monthly rents in Canada increased to $1,837, a 4.7% increase compared to 2024. However, occupancy decreased to 94.3% from 97.8% due to increased competition from existing and newly built apartment rentals.
U.S. Portfolio Performance: Average monthly rents in the U.S. increased by 1.5% to USD 1,939. Occupancy improved to 92.5% from 91.7%, achieved by modest reductions in asking rent and limiting renewal increases.
Financial Position: Total assets remained at $4.6 billion. Cash on hand was $77.5 million, and $74.5 million was advanced to Morguard Corporation. Debt to gross book value ratio slightly decreased to 39.5%.
Net Income: Net income was $12.5 million for Q3 2025, compared to a net loss of $18.8 million in 2024, driven by a $67.2 million increase in fair value gain on Class B LPUs and a $3.9 million decrease in deferred income taxes.
Net Operating Income (NOI): IFRS NOI increased by 4% to $54.1 million. Proportionate NOI increased by 2.7%, with a decrease in Canada due to higher vacancy and operating expenses, and an increase in the U.S. due to AMR growth and lower vacancy.
Interest Expense: Decreased by $0.5 million due to a $2.4 million noncash fair value gain on convertible debentures, partially offset by higher mortgage interest.
Funds From Operations (FFO): FFO increased by 2% to $22.3 million, or $0.43 per unit, due to NOI growth, foreign exchange rate changes, and unit repurchases under the NCIB.
NCIB (Normal Course Issuer Bid): Repurchased 1.3 million units at an average price of $17.40, enhancing capital efficiency.
Annual Cash Distribution: Increased by $0.03 per unit (3.95%) to $0.79 per unit annually, reflecting strong financial performance.
Foreign Exchange Rate Impact: The fair value increase on income-producing properties was offset by a decrease due to the change in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, which could impact financial stability and asset valuation.
Operating Expenses and Vacancy in Canada: Net operating income in Canada decreased by $0.3 million or 1.6%, mainly due to an increase in operating expenses and higher vacancy rates, which could affect profitability.
Interest Rate and Mortgage Refinancing: The weighted average interest rate increased to 4.08% from 3.88%, and higher principal and interest rates on mortgage refinancing led to increased interest expenses, potentially impacting cash flow.
Occupancy Rates in Canada: Occupancy in Canada dropped to 94.3% from 97.8% due to increased competition from existing buildings and newly built apartment rentals, which could pressure rental income.
CapEx Expenditures: The REIT's total CapEx amounted to $40.3 million, which includes various projects. High capital expenditures could strain financial resources if not offset by revenue growth.
Market Conditions and Occupancy: Management believes market conditions will remain strong and stable as housing demand continues to outdistance supply. In the U.S., management is well positioned for modest average monthly rent (AMR) growth while maintaining stable occupancies throughout the portfolio.
Capital Expenditures (CapEx): The REIT's total CapEx for the 9 months ended September 30, 2025, amounted to $40.3 million, including revenue-enhancing projects, tenant improvements, and energy initiatives.
Average Monthly Rent (AMR) Growth: In Canada, AMR increased by 4.7% compared to 2024, with management achieving 14.3% AMR growth on suite turnover. In the U.S., AMR increased by 1.5% compared to 2024, with expectations for modest growth moving forward.
Annual Cash Distribution Increase: The REIT announced an increase in its annual cash distribution by $0.03 per unit, representing a 3.95% increase. This raises the distribution to $0.79 per unit on an annualized basis from the previous $0.76 per unit.
Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB): The REIT repurchased approximately 1.3 million units during 2025 at an average price of $17.40 per unit. The NCIB plan was highlighted as an appealing use of capital, supported by the REIT's IFRS net asset value per unit of $44.16 as of September 30, 2025.
The earnings call shows mixed signals: positive FFO growth and AMR increases, but occupancy challenges and slowed NCIB activity. The Q&A reveals management's cautious approach to acquisitions and rent increases, with ongoing renovations affecting occupancy. Despite some growth in Chicago, pressure in the Sunbelt and Mississauga indicates uncertainties. No strong catalysts for a significant stock movement were identified, leading to a neutral prediction.
The earnings call presents several challenges: a significant EPS miss, declining revenues across multiple regions, and a challenging media environment. Despite some cost-saving measures, the lack of share buybacks or dividend announcements, coupled with a flat to negative revenue guidance and cautious management responses, indicates a negative sentiment. The Q&A highlights ongoing uncertainties and no positive new business outlook, further supporting a negative rating. The absence of positive catalysts or partnerships likely leads to a negative stock price reaction.
The earnings call indicates several negative factors: revenue declines across multiple regions, a challenging macroeconomic environment, and significant losses in China. Although there are some positive elements, such as cost savings and strategic investments, the overall sentiment is negative due to the weak revenue guidance and lack of a share buyback program. The Q&A session highlighted concerns about market pressures and uncertainties, further supporting a negative outlook. Given the absence of a clear catalyst for a positive stock movement, a negative stock price reaction is anticipated over the next two weeks.
The earnings call revealed mixed signals: a slight decline in net revenue and EPS, but improved margins and cash flow. The flat dividend and cash returns are neutral factors. The Q&A session highlighted concerns about flat to negative growth guidance and client losses, countered by cost savings and AI investments. The management's lack of clarity on certain questions adds uncertainty. Overall, the stock price is likely to remain stable over the next two weeks, with no major catalysts for a strong move in either direction.
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